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r/fivethirtyeight

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FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. This sub follows FiveThirtyEight content, former FiveThirtyEight contributors as well as the wider world of political data analytics.

Notice: This subreddit is not actively monitored, so the posts here are only a small subset of what exists on reddit.

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to r/fivethirtyeight by Emotional_Object5561
3 days ago
Is it safe to say that “shy Trump voters” are real?
Discussion
to r/fivethirtyeight by Delmer9713
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for SurveyUSA (2.8★) / KSTP-TV - Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District: Harris 47%, Trump 45% | Craig 49%, Teirab 41% Among Likely Voters image
SurveyUSA (2.8★) / KSTP-TV - Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District: Harris 47%, Trump 45% | Craig 49%, Teirab 41% Among Likely Voters
Poll Results
in Harris, MN
to r/fivethirtyeight by hangingonthetelephon
3 weeks ago
Is the PA "firewall" justified? A programmatic analysis (tldr: seems plausible as a "tie", but nothing to feel safe from - more of a necessary condition for a D win than a sufficient one?)
Amateur Model
in Pennsylvania
to r/fivethirtyeight by DaddyyBlue
1 month ago
A question about the Swing-o-matic
Election Model
to r/fivethirtyeight by dwaxe
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election image
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
in Michigan
to r/fivethirtyeight by NateSilverFan
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for October 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 48% - Emerson Polling image
October 2024 National Poll: Harris 50%, Trump 48% - Emerson Polling
Poll Results
to r/fivethirtyeight by Brooklyn_MLS
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Emerson College: Trump 50, Harris 47 in AZ. Trump 49, Harris 48 in NC. image
Emerson College: Trump 50, Harris 47 in AZ. Trump 49, Harris 48 in NC.
Poll Results
in Arizona
to r/fivethirtyeight by NateSilverFan
3 weeks ago
Quinnipiac Poll: Trump +6 (50/44) in GA, Trump +2 (49/47) in NC
Poll Results
in Georgia, US
to r/fivethirtyeight by AscendingSnowOwl
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Survey USA (2.8/3) Nebraska Senate: Osborn (I) 45%, Fischer (R) 44% image
Survey USA (2.8/3) Nebraska Senate: Osborn (I) 45%, Fischer (R) 44%
Poll Results
in Nebraska
to r/fivethirtyeight by dwaxe
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for This could be the closest presidential election since 1876 image
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876
to r/fivethirtyeight by sunny_the2nd
3 weeks ago
538 suggests Virginia is a likely win for Harris
Discussion
in Virginia
to r/fivethirtyeight by SlashGames
3 weeks ago
SurveyUSA (A+) North Carolina Poll: Harris + 1 (46/45)
Poll
in North Carolina
to r/fivethirtyeight by SentientBaseball
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for New FLORIDA poll by FAU/Mainstreet Research (B+): Trump: 47%, Harris 45%, RFK 5%. Without RFK, Trump: 50%, Harris 47%. SENATE RACE: Rick Scott (R) 47%, Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D) 43%. image
New FLORIDA poll by FAU/Mainstreet Research (B+): Trump: 47%, Harris 45%, RFK 5%. Without RFK, Trump: 50%, Harris 47%. SENATE RACE: Rick Scott (R) 47%, Debbie Mucarsel Powell (D) 43%.
in Florida
to r/fivethirtyeight by Jacomer2
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Harris selects Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate, aiming to add Midwest muscle to ticket image
Harris selects Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate, aiming to add Midwest muscle to ticket
in Harris, MN
to r/fivethirtyeight by dtarias
3 weeks ago
Pennsylvania is 3x as likely to be the tipping-point state as Michigan
in Pennsylvania
to r/fivethirtyeight by dwaxe
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Could Josh Shapiro win Kamala Harris the Electoral College? image
Could Josh Shapiro win Kamala Harris the Electoral College?
to r/fivethirtyeight by dwaxe
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table image
What 8 potential Kamala Harris VP picks bring to the table
to r/fivethirtyeight by dsvoboda080182
3 weeks ago
Algorithm predicts 28% likelihood Biden will resign in two months
to r/fivethirtyeight by JohnnyGeniusIsAlive
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Harry Enten on JD Vance polling image
Harry Enten on JD Vance polling
Politics
to r/fivethirtyeight by TheTonyExpress
3 weeks ago
Election Discussion Megathread
to r/fivethirtyeight by manofactivity
3 weeks ago
Obama endorses open nominating process while Clintons endorse Harris
Politics
to r/fivethirtyeight by The_Real_Ed_Finnerty
3 weeks ago
Preview thumbnail for Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris for President image
Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris for President
Politics
to r/fivethirtyeight by Ben1152000
3 weeks ago
Why Gretchen Whitmer might be the best replacement candidate (Fundamentals Analysis)
Discussion
to r/fivethirtyeight by Joshylord4
8 months ago
Is Mitch McConnell dying a serious risk for the GOP?
to r/fivethirtyeight by Joshylord4
8 months ago
Preview thumbnail for I charted the odds of each team in the 2021 season winning the superbowl week-by-week according to the 538 model. (4 teams never broke 0.2%, so Sheets wouldn't include them.) image
I charted the odds of each team in the 2021 season winning the superbowl week-by-week according to the 538 model. (4 teams never broke 0.2%, so Sheets wouldn't include them.)