Hi fellow nerds! I’ve been playing with 538’s Swing-o-matic tool. It’s very cool. But the default value for voters aged 30-44, ostensibly based on 2020, gives Democrats a 21 percentage point margin. That seems WAY too high based on anything else I’ve read.

When you correct that value, and also correct for the increases in Black and Latino support for Republicans (I entered Black D 70 margin and Latino D 20), it returns a pretty easy win for Trump - even when also putting in some other more favorable numbers for Democrats.

Am I missing something? Swing-o-matic predicts a Trump win, but 538, and most other polling aggregators, are giving Harris a slight edge.

(Full disclosure: I’m terrified of a Trump win and I’m looking for some encouragement here. 🙂)