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Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
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State politics are quite a different beast than national, and I've long believed the vice presidential nominee does not matter unless they are just riddled with scandal, which we have only seen one time in 1972.
Larry Hogan was a very popular Republican governor of Maryland. He's going to get decisively beat in his bid for Senate.
The Dukakis/Bentsen ticket lost Texas in 1988 by nearly a million votes. Bentsen was reelected to the Senate in the same year (quirky Texas law installed by LBJ) by about 800,000 votes.
Same reason why it's probable that Josh Stein beats Mark Robinson by 10 points while Harris narrowly loses the state. Same thing going on in Arizona with the Senate race and Harris' chances there.