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People are mistaken if they believe the vice presidential nominee is chosen to flip a swing state. That hasn't been true since 1960, where LBJ was practically a God in Texas and Kennedy needed him because LBJ had so much influence with the Texas political bosses.
Michael Dukakis selected Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and the ticket lost Texas. Fun fact, Bentsen won reelection to the US Senate by more than a million votes even though the Dukakis/Bentsen ticket lost the state by nearly 800,000.
The VP doesn't have that much of an impact. It's more about messaging. It's also important that the VP compliments the president and not be contradictory.
It's why I think Andy Beshear will be the pick. It attacks the age issue (Beshear is 46). It allows for geographical diversity, Harris being from California and Beshear from Kentucky. Beshear was also quick to endorse Harris and start stumping for her on television.
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