The Korean Civil War: Jan-Feb 2028

Introduction Sides

When Korea unified in 2021, many anticipated that irreconcilable differences between the North and the South would eventually boil into civil conflict. In this, they'd be correct. The shape of this eventual conflict, analysts believed, would be between the authoritarian communist power that was the Workers' Party of Korea, and the fiercely democratic South, led by Moon Jae-in. In this, they'd be wrong.

The rise of the Grand National Restoration Party (GNRP), led by Yi Kwon - Crown Prince to the House of Yi's claim to the Korean throne - was unpredictable. Started in 2022, the GNRP only rose to prominence thanks to a strange set of coincidences: the Democratic Party's weak stance on pro-democracy stances like the liberation of prison camps, the PPP and traditional right-wing parties coalition within Jae-in's Democrats, and business and intelligence interests finding a common ally in the GNRP. The GNRP is explicitly anti-democracy in nature - promoting a conservative, monarchist view on Korea - but importantly to the Korean Intelligence Agency (KINA) and to the chaebols, the GNRP is fiercely capitalist, and fiercely unionist. KINA assistance, chaebol money, and fuck-ups from the other main parties led the GNRP storming into power.

It also meant that the eventual civil war wouldn't be a simple "communist vs. capitalist" conflict, nor would it be a simple "North vs. South" conflict. Instead, it can be best be characterized as follows

• Pro-Government Forces
  • Summary: Led by Premier Yi Kwon, the pro-government side is by far the most popular. With the military, the intelligence agencies, and the chaebols firmly behind the government's vision, they boast the largest numbers and biggest coffers.
  • Korean National Defense Forces (600,000 ) - The traditional military; some forces more eager than others, only a portion mobilized at a time
  • Jeongbo Heonbyeong (8,000) - KINA's secret police; well trained and ideologues
  • Golden Korea Alliance (50,000) - GNRP-aligned paramilitary organization; mediocre training and fanatic
  • Private Contractors (30,000) - Hired using chaebol money; decent training and motivated by money
  • Presidential Security Service (300) - Personal bodyguards; well trained and loyal
  • Anti-Communist Militias (25,000) - Former political prisoners in the North; iffy training and primary hates communists, no loyalty to government in particular
• Communist Forces
  • Summary: Led by the Politburo of the Workers' Party of Korea, the Communist-aligned forces are the next-best armed and trained. Based primarily in the rural Northern mountains, as well as a few Northern urban centers, they are decently well-equipped and backed by Communist sympathizers.
  • Worker-Peasant Red Guards (85,000) - The primary armed-wing of the Workers' Party of Korea following the dissolution and disarmament of the Korean People's Army; well trained and ideologues
• Pro-Democracy Forces
  • Summary: A grassroots movement, the pro-Democracy forces primarily stem out of the Korean Democratic Union - a grouping of loosely aligned militias across the South, opposed to Northern authoritarianism. In the wake of the GNRP's attempted arrest of its political opponents, a number of pro-democracy forces have risen up in opposition to the government. They are primarily based in Southern urban areas, and are incredibly decentralized.
  • Korean Democratic Union (35,000) - The KDU is the umbrella organization that the militias fall under, nominally led by a National Organizing committee but in practice led by local units; mediocre training and decentralized
  • Protests (millions) - Protests dominate the Southern cities, primarily in opposition to attempts at arresting political opposition and at seizing press offices; not-armed or military oriented
• Neutral
  • Community Self Defense Forces (150,000) - Largely untrained militias, the Community Self Defense Forces is the manifestation of a grassroots resistance to GKA mob-led violence on January 1st. Largely untrained, politically unaffiliated, and purely defensive in nature.

With that out of the way....

Timeline of the Conflict

January 1st, 2028

The Korean Civil War began on January 1st, 2028, at 7 AM, when Internet connection across the peninsula was cut off by the KINA. The attempt at severing communications was noticeable, and also an abysmal failure - South Korea's integration with the global community online was so complete that usage of VPN and independent servers rendered the KINA's blockade of online traffic completely inept. All throughout the day and coming months of the war, online social media platforms would spread news about the conflict like wildfire, and the KINA would quickly abandoning any attempt at severing online communications on a nationwide level.

The Heonbyeong - the police arm of the KINA - would attempt to arrest notable politicians nationwide, both in Seoul and in major provincial/city centers. By-in-large, these attempts would go terribly. Barring a few successful captures of low-level advisors and provincial administrators, most opposition politicians escaped - with WPK-aligned officials escaping into the Northern mountains, while Southern officials escaped into KDU-dominated urban areas. An attempted pre-emptive strike on Red Guard leaders would go terribly wrong, as the KNAF's attempts to remain anonymous by using aging Russian and Chinese planes would end up with two dozen civilians killed, and just over three dozen civilians injured.

The Golden Korea Alliance (GKA) would send its paramilitaries out on various missions on the first day as well. Success was found early in the day, with paramilitaries entering opposition political offices across the South and burning them down with ease. However, attempts at doing the same with major press offices would fail, as by that point in the day, community self-defense forces would drive off attempted mob-action with efficient fire.

By the end of the day, not even the restoration of unmolested Internet access and a nationally broadcasted statement from the Premier, wherein he outlined a "Communist-Union Council conspiracy" to overthrow his democratically-elected government as motivation for the day's action, could save the day from a public relations standpoint. As the Premier announced the suspension of the Union Council and direct provincial/city rule from Seoul, social media was ablaze with the images of the day. Images of a burning school in the North, victim of a KNAF airstrike, a Democratic Party office ablaze after a mob had gotten to it, and Golden Korea Alliance paramilitaries wandering through the streets with golden armbands, balaclavas, and AK-74s would go viral.

January-February, 2028

The rest of January and February would see violence levels gradually increase.

In the North, the Red Guards solidified their defensive position in the Northern mountains, finding refuge in cave systems and stockpiling as many supplies as they could. Buoyed by the failed attempts as assassination, as well as news of immense civil resistance in the South, the Politburo adopted a policy of a modified People's war with regards to the government forces. The primary modification is a shift to a fully defensive doctrine of mountain-based guerilla warfare, with the end goal of exhausting the government's will to fight.

Alongside the Red Guards' entrenchment, however, came the build-up of anti-communist guerillas. Primarily recruited out of the recently liberated political prisoners and funded/armed by Seoul, the anti-communist militias were the primary purveyors of violence in the North during January and February - wandering into the mountains under the guise of being new, eager recruits, then massacring as many Red Guards as possible. In a particularly violent incident, known simply as the January 15th Massacre, anti-communist guerillas completely razed a village that had been harboring Red Guard and Red Guard sympathizers to the ground.

The Heonbyeong and Korean National Army took action against the few urban-based pockets of Red Guard resistance, with 1,000 Heonbyeong units and 5,000 men from the KNA's 507th Infantry Brigade attacking, clearing out, and occupying Pyongyang over a week and a half. A few hundred specialized Heonbyeong operatives also accompanied a few hundred men from the 707th Special Mission Group in covert deployment to Northern mountains, and together they began disrupting Red Guard operations and supporting anti-communist guerillas.

The Korean National Air Force, despite immense backlash to their initial strikes on January 1st, would continue a policy of airstrikes and close air support - undertaking a few precision bombing missions per day against Red Guard positions in the mountains, but otherwise avoiding heavy involvement.

In the South, the primary conflict was propagated by the Golden Korea Alliance. GKA paramilitaries, widely known to be closely tied to the government, are by far the most well-equipped and well-trained combat force operating in the South. The main opposition - loosely affiliated KDU militias - were quickly shooed out of urban areas and into the countryside by the GKA paramilitaries.

However, the wide-spread protests have proved a larger nuisance than anticipated. With hundreds of thousands still in the streets even two months later, the government response had gotten increasingly violent - with, in the most recent episodes, National Police Agency officers coming down ruthlessly on protesters who stayed out past curfew, resulting in numerous deaths and dozens of injuries.

As the first two months of the Civil War comes to a close, it is apparent that this is no traditional war. The government's military power has not manifested itself through the large Korean National Defense Forces, who - with the exception of 5,000 KNA units and a few hundred special forces - remain at their bases on high alert. Instead, this is a guerilla war between partisan militias. Resistance comes from guerilla groups such as the Red Guards and the Korean Democratic Union, and even state forces manifest themselves through loosely affiliated militias (anti-communist guerillas in the North, the GKA in the South) and through secret police action from the Heonbyeong. This specific fact - the state's reliance on guerilla warfare rather than dedicating traditional military forces to eradicate the Red Guards in particular - mean that without significant action from the Red Guards and the KDU, they will likely be starved out of ammunition, food, water, and other supplies within a year. Civilian casualties have been moderate, with potential for more as all forces get gradually more frustrated with a lack of progress.

Cumulative Casualties