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THINK PIECE: Worst Case Scenario [For China]

"Why China still has a chance and it's worst case scenario is yet to come."

March 3rd, 2025

WRITTEN BY

Naoko Funatsu

The Hyacinth Award for Excellence

The following is a think piece written by Naoko Funatsu, senior Research Fellow and expert in Foreign Affairs. This piece has been published by the KIIA - ranked #1 Think Tank in the World.

Beijing faces mounting global pressure as an international coalition including strategic resource and geographic partners has now mobilized against the PFC in an effort to thwart an ongoing genocide in Northern China. Efforts by the Karakum to unite Western Asia and the Mid-east have been reasonably successful thus far as deployments from varying countries begin to trickle into the small would-be conflict zone. The mounting international pressure has likewise placed the Chinese nation in a state of paralysis, suffering from indecision which is threatening the entire political structure of the PFC.

Efforts to pacify the minority groups of Northern China have likewise resulted in objective failure. None of the minority populations willing to risk what is ultimately a death sentence should the previously proposed terms have been accepted, have instead rallied behind the banner of the Karakum in a blatant attempt to gain increasing amounts of formal credibility for an independent or otherwise autonomous Northern Region. The global community for its part has been silent on the issue, the CSS (Russia), the USA (India), Nusantara and Vietnam being the only major nations to even make formal statements on the issue at hand. This has left the Karakum in a deceptively weak position - heavily reliant on possible future support from nations who thus far have been content with piece-meal deployments and empty promises. Yet with the Arab States such as the ADIR, RIGS, and others now coming formally to the side of the Karakum - it is clear that the noose is tightening.

And yet the State of Karakum lacks one crucial piece - a piece that so long as it remains outside the puzzle box, will ensure China lives. Possessing unquestionable military power in relation to it's neighbor, it would seem unlikely that China could effectively lose any ground against the fledgling central Asian State. The recently unstable CSS and the still castrated USA likewise pose very little threat alone. And while economic threats and action from the Arab States and Asia remain a major question of national security - all such attempts to tighten the noose remain worthless unless the Democratic Union of Korea mobilizes to bring an end to the crisis.

Thus far - the Democratic Union of Korea staying true to it's current National Doctrine, has remained non-committal to the ongoing crisis in Central Asia and yet it is the only thing currently preventing the pressure against Beijing from reaching its climax. One of the few nations if not the only nation which could militarily stand up against the PFC alone - and in theory could permanently end Chinese access to the Pacific, the Democratic Union of Korea is in a unique situation as the proverbial "King-maker" in this crisis. Karakum which desperately needs to reinforce the pressure against the PFC economically - cannot do so unless the Democratic Union of Korea agrees to end Pacific access to Chinese trade. Likewise, China desperately needs to ensure that the Democratic Union of Korea remains uninvolved in the ongoing crisis.

The worst case scenario for China would be one in which the Democratic Union of Korea was brought into the ongoing crisis to act against the ongoing genocide and chaos. For the Karakum it is the complete opposite. Both parties in this are reliant on the entrance of or lack of the Democratic Union of Korea. While China's foreign policy has been continually hampered by the indecision, it is clear that this is not something it can be indecisive about. If China is to avoid the worst case scenario while ensuring a stable Northern China remains in its control, they must bring the Koreans to the table and negotiate a settlement that would keep the Democratic Union of Korea uninvolved. This will most likely mean major concessions by the PFC - however it is clear that failure to do so would be an existential mistake.

Decisiveness by Beijing will be crucial as the continued inaction and unwillingness to come before Seoul has drawn the ire and impatience of the Union Council, who has continually signaled a possible Korean entrance into the crisis. As outlined, such as scenario would be China's worst case scenario and is a verifiable existential threat to Beijing. And as the Council continues to discuss internally possible future movement, it becomes clear now that Beijing must come before the Supreme Leader if it is to survive.