Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake in the day to find that all was vanity; but the dreamers of the day are dangerous men, for they may act their dream with open eyes, and make it possible.

Seven Pillars of Wisdom Col. T E Lawrence

When you play the game of thrones, you win or you die.

The spectacular collapse of the United States would send shockwaves through the Middle East, especially among the Gulf monarchies, many of whom had come to depend on the Americans for defense equipment, training and personnel as well as the security guarantee of the world’s superpower. As American men and material began to return home, it became clear that the nations of the Arabian peninsula were on their own and a great struggle for regional dominance would move from behind the scenes to center stage. The poles of this conflict had long been in place: the ambition of the House of Saud, their rivalry with Al Thanis, the rising power of the Al Nahyan in the UAE, the instability of Yemen and Iraq. All that was needed was a spark to set the desert ablaze.

That spark came in July of 2021 with the death of King Salman of Saudi Arabia. The old king died peacefully in his sleep and had been in ill health for many years, yet he would not have anticipated the upheaval his death would bring to the Arab world. His son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was by his side when he died and was able to take full advantage of the fact to seize power before the news of the king’s passing became known outside the palace. Given his record of ruthless action to gain power, there are rumors that the prince may have aided his father’s passing but those foolish enough to speak such words have met brutal ends.

The first flare up was in Iraq, whose Shi’a majority saw the final withdrawal of the Americans as their chance to re-align with an eye toward Tehran. This had long been the fear of the countries of the Arabian peninsula, that the Shi’a crescent of Syria, Iraq and Iran would become a dominant force in the Middle East. The Saudis, at the request of the leaders of Iraq’s Sunni parties, were invited to secure the country in advance of the elections scheduled for October of 2021. Despite the protests of the Iraqi government, Saudi forces invaded western Iraq with the support of the UAE. Secret negotiations with Iraq’s Kurdistan region ensured that the Kurds would support the Saudi coalition, in exchange for increased regional autonomy. The example of the American war had taught them the cost of a prolonged conflict, and King Mohammed knew he would need a greater force to fully absorb Iraq. He proposed the confederation system to the Gulf monarchs as a way to thwart Iranian expansion before it even began, offering substantial autonomy within the confederation if the leaders would unite into one state. While initially very unpopular, proposals from the UAE, Bahrain and Jordan to reduce the Saudi king from the leader of the confederation to a “first among equals” was begrudgingly accepted. Oman and Qatar resisted initially, very concerned about the loss of sovereignty, but the Israeli annexation of Palestine and Lebanon and the Iranian annexation of Azerbaijan brought them to the table. The combined Arab forces were able to make their way into Baghdad and secure the surrender of the Iraqi government. This left the ongoing civil war in Yemen as the final ongoing conflict within the Confederation. The prestige and diplomatic clout of the Gulf monarchs were leveraged, and a compromise was made that divided Yemen between the Houthi led north and the Hadi government in the south.

Government

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Head of Government: Mohammed bin Salman, Amir al-umara, President of the Confederation Council, Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques

Form of Government: Council of Princes

Composition of the Council

Constituent States

Emir of Bahrain

Emir of Qatar

Emir of Oman

Emir of Saudi Arabia

Emir of Jordan

Emir of Kuwait

President of the Federal Supreme Council of the United Arab Emirates

President of the Republic of North Yemen

President of the Republic of South Yemen

Observer Members of the Council (Non-voting)

President of the Kurdish Autonomous Region

Confederation Transitional Authority in Iraq

Underlying states have significant autonomy and have largely retained their pre-confederation governments, with the exception of Yemen and Iraq. Yemen has been divided roughly along the same lines as it was before its union. Iraq is currently governed directly by the Confederation Council, with the Kurds granted substantial autonomy. While the Confederation appears to be a Saudi dominated superstate, behind the scenes there is significant resistance to the Saudis behind the scenes. Leaders of the constituent states jockey for power and position within the council and to divert shared resources to their respective states.

Economy

Nominally free market, the Confederation and its constituent states still have significant presence of companies owned by the state. State-owned enterprises have significant presence in the production of petroleum products and associated products of refining. While many of the constituent states had long-term plans to transition their economies away from petroleum, progress toward this end has been effectively halted by the American collapse. This setback, however, comes with the opportunity to move forward as a united Arabia.