TLDR: President just declared SOC's regulatory problems a national emergency. 646M barrels of oil ready to pump. Trading at 1/5 of peer value. CEO traded his private jet for shares. Shorts are about to learn what federal preemption means.

THE SABLE ORIGIN STORY 📚 Picture this: It's 2021, and some absolute chads see something in California that would make Michael Burry proud. They look at the most anti-oil state in America and say "let's buy Exxon's shutdown oil fields."

What They Bought:

• Santa Ynez Unit: Three massive offshore platforms
• Las Flores Canyon Processing Facility (where oil goes brrr)
• Pipelines that gave California PTSD in 2015
• Previous production: 671 MILLION barrels (1981-2015)

The Deal Structure (This Is Where It Gets Spicy):

• Bought from ExxonMobil (yes, that Exxon)
• Must restart production by January 2026
• If they fail, Exxon can take it back
• If they succeed, money printer goes brrr

The Assets:

• 646 million barrels of oil equivalent
• 86% oil (the good stuff)
• 13% natural gas
• 1% stuff nobody cares about

THE NUCLEAR BOMB TRUMP JUST DROPPED 💣 Yesterday, Trump signed the most aggressive energy executive order I've ever seen. This isn't your regular "save the polar bears" BS. This is the federal government going full send on California regulators.

Just when you thought this setup couldn't get any more interesting, Phil fucking Mickelson is in the stock too.

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Listen up degenerates, because I've found something so beautiful it would make Michael Burry cry. This isn't your regular oil moonshot - this is the kind of deep value play that usually gets snatched up by Private Equity before retail ever sees it.

First, let me explain what the fuck SOC even is, because this backstory is important. Back in 2021, a group of oil industry veterans pulled off what might be the biggest chad move in energy: they bought ExxonMobil's shutdown California oil fields for pocket change. Not some speculative drilling rights - we're talking about three massive offshore platforms that were pumping 671 MILLION barrels of oil from 1981 to 2015.

Why did these money printers stop? In 2015, one of their pipelines had an oopsie that made California regulators lose their minds. Everything got shut down, and Exxon, tired of dealing with California's bs, basically said "fuck it" and sold the whole thing to these guys who became Sable Offshore. They gave them a loan, and said here you go.

Here's where it gets interesting. The deal was structured like a 4D chess move: Sable got the assets for almost nothing upfront, BUT they have to restart production by January 2026 or Exxon can take everything back. Everyone thought they were fucked because California's regulatory process moves slower than your wife's boyfriend on date night.

But yesterday, something magical happened. Trump signed an executive order that's basically a tactical nuke aimed directly at California regulators. And this isn't your regular executive order about protecting endangered snails - this is the federal government going full "fuck your permits" mode.

Let me explain why this order changes everything. When Trump declared a national energy emergency yesterday, he didn't just sign some weak 'pretty please approve permits faster' bullshit. He activated three specific legal powers that turn SOC from 'maybe someday' to 'holy shit this is happening':

1. The Defense Production Act - If you don't know what this is, it's the same law they used to force companies to make ventilators during COVID. Except now, instead of ventilators, they're saying SOC's oil is critical to national defense. Think about that. Once your oil field becomes a military strategic asset, California's permits become as relevant as your wife's boyfriend's opinion on your investment strategy.
2. Federal Preemption Powers - The order specifically calls out California's "dangerous State and local policies" as a threat to national security. This isn't just fancy legal talk. Remember the Millennium Pipeline case in 2006? New York tried to block a natural gas pipeline, and the feds just said "nah" and built it anyway. This order gives SOC the same power, but on steroids because now it's a declared national emergency.
3. Military Construction Authority - This is the cherry on top. The order lets the Department of Defense declare infrastructure as critical to national security. Once that happens, SOC's pipelines aren't oil pipelines anymore - they're strategic defense assets. Game over.

But here's where it gets really spicy. While the market is still trying to figure out what this means, the CEO, Jim Flores, already showed us he knows exactly what's coming. In October, this absolute chad traded his private jet - yes, his PRIVATE JET - for 600,000 more shares. When's the last time you saw a CEO give up his jet to buy more stock? This isn't some bullshit insider buying where they grab a few shares for show. This is "I believe in this so much I'll fly Spirit Airlines" level conviction.

Now let's talk numbers, because this is where your smooth brain might actually form a wrinkle. SOC is currently trading at $26, which values their oil at $4.87 per barrel. Meanwhile, every other comparable company trades at $26 per barrel. For you math-challenged apes, that means SOC is trading at ONE-FIFTH of what it should be worth, just because some California bureaucrats are mad.

But wait, it gets better. There are 7,080,000 shares short. The same smooth brains who thought betting against American oil during a national energy emergency was a good idea. Meanwhile, insiders own 14.30% and institutions own 26.19% of the float. And these aren't day-trading paper hands - these are long-term holders who actually read 10-Ks and understand what's about to happen.

Let me explain why the courts don't matter here, because this is where the genius of SOC's position comes in. The executive order isn't just some vague policy statement - it creates immediate emergency powers that work NOW, while any legal challenges would take years to resolve. By the time any court case gets serious, the oil will already be flowing.

Think about how the timeline works: SOC has until January 2026 to restart production. Court cases about federal emergency powers typically take 2-3 years minimum to reach any serious resolution. You see where this is going? The feds can start overriding California tomorrow, and by the time any judge gets involved, SOC will already be printing money.

And this isn't even considering the national security angle. Courts have historically bent the knee when it comes to national security declarations. The executive order specifically frames California's regulatory system as a threat to national security.

But here's the part that makes this a truly asymmetric bet: SOC doesn't even need to win every regulatory fight. They just need to get their existing infrastructure back online. We're not talking about building new oil platforms here. Everything already exists - the platforms, the processing facility, the pipelines. They just need to fix some pipes and flip the switch.

Let's talk about how fucking stupid the current valuation is. SOC is sitting on 646 MILLION barrels of oil. At current prices around $80/barrel, that's $51.7 BILLION worth of oil. Yet the entire company is valued at $2.33B. Yes, you read that right. The market is pricing this like the oil will never flow.

'But what if oil prices drop?' Even at $40/barrel, this thing prints money. The infrastructure is already built. The wells are already drilled. This isn't some speculative play where they need to find oil - they already have it. They just need regulatory permission to turn it back on.

Now let's talk about the short squeeze potential, because it's juicier than your wife's boyfriend's gains. There are 7,080,000 shares short. These 🤡 are literally betting that:

1. The federal government won't enforce its own emergency order
2. California will successfully fight the Defense Production Act
3. Courts will move faster than SOC's restart timeline
4. The CEO traded his private jet for shares because he's stupid

Here's why the shorts are about to learn about federal preemption the hard way: The executive order requires agencies to report on their emergency actions every 30 days. That means we're about to get a constant stream of catalysts as federal agencies start steamrolling state regulators.

Risk/Reward? Let's break it down: Downside: SOC completely fumbles the greatest regulatory gift in history and loses everything to Exxon in 2026. You lose your investment but keep a great story about that time the President declared a national emergency to help a stock you owned.

Upside: SOC uses federal power to restart production, trades up to peer valuations (5x), and potentially squeezes higher as shorts realize they bet against oil during an energy emergency.

Positions or Ban: Balls deep with 6000 shares, and more options in my wife's account.

https://preview.redd.it/rmdxm4vt8fee1.png?width=459&format=png&auto=webp&s=1798b57cc569564f0edffdc8e71c7bf96c2cca45

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*Not financial advice. I just think when the President declares your regulatory problems a national emergency, something interesting might happen to your stock price.

P.S.: Yes, these are REAL oil fields that were ACTUALLY producing until 2015. This isn't some penny stock scam. This is boomer-grade assets with WSB-grade catalysts.

P.S.: For those asking about precedent - Secretary of Commerce overrode state objections in Millennium Pipeline case. This executive order is that case on steroids.