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I made a comparison of the top btc-linked equities who own the most btc... a) MSTR, b) MARA, and c) HUT ... i want to preface this by saying all BTC-linked equities deserve some premia in a bull market. The question is how much & when.
MSTR was trading at $478K per bitcoin yesterday morning... so yesterday's correction was good news... it re-rated... to <$400K per bitcoin... i have a feeling the premia is gona expand again though and Saylor will tap the convert markets 3-4x more from now until the Spring. The stock can double from here. Because MSTR's software operations are winding down, it justifies its premia by promising it will be a sort of 'bitcoin bank' in the future. TBD.
MARA was never really known on Wall Street for its HODL, but since the shares were flat as BTC went from $60K to $90K, the HODL now puts it in the top 3 BTC treasury plays. In the past, 80-90% of MARA's market cap was attributable to its operating company: the mining facilities. That has now changed. It's become more & more of a BTC proxy. This is a monumental shift. I didn't believe it 100% until I crunched the numbers, and looked at their latest debt offering... MARA is a top 2 mining/HODL play. It's a new landscape for miners.
HUT was always known as the classic HODL play if you didn't want to touch MSTR... especially as BTC ETFs didn't have any options contracts. If you wanted levered long BTC exposure, you had to either play MSTR or HUT. When MSTR got out of control, traders looked to call options on HUT to get that levered long exposure. HUT is still the biggest HODL play in the mining arena, and due to the recent underperformance, it's also the best value (in terms of cheapest price per BTC). HUT shareholders have also been much less diluted than MARA shareholders, and HUT's float is much tighter than MARA's. Furthermore, HUT's short intrst is double MARA's, creating extra volatility. I suspect the options market on HUT will begin to price this in as HUT shares begin to move again, but nobody knows. They can always sink too. HUT's smaller size has the added benefit of making it a more realistic M&A target (for both corporates and PE), which is always a nice uplift due to the premia often paid to shareholders in a buyout scenario. I like both HUT and MARA at these levels.
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