M/A activity has been down substantially for “reasons”. But for different “reasons” Wall Street expect M/A to rebound, MASSIVELY.

My bet is the M/A season starts off with a BANG!! Kroger is buying Albertsons for $34 a share.

Kroger has bent over backwards to accommodate all the request of various agencies and states.

And objectively if they don’t merge they simply can’t compete on price.

Important dates : just one Dec 10th 1/3 judges will make their decision public. The other 2 judges mentioned they would make decisions “quickly”. ( keep in mind this deal was announced Oct 2022)

The play : arbitrage plays give you the best odds in the stock market. Completely binary!! If the judges say yes? Albertsons runs to 34 they say no it probably crashes to $11.

Puts are expensive AF right now, but OTM calls are dirt cheap. So cheap anyone can play!!!

$0.08 for $27 calls expiring Jan 2025 is my play, Why the hell not? The options market seems to think this is a done deal.

TLDR : OTM calls are so cheap even you can afford it.