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Asking y'all mouthbreathers to please share your nay-lection thesis with me
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Here are mine: NFA I'm losing money every day.

Trump wins

  • Long volatility: vix calls because tariffs, gov spending cuts, and basically just a whole lot of uncertainties to be priced in.
  • Short Fast food and healthcare: RFK's Make America Healthy Again plans means less money spend on healtcare in the next decades, less profits on unhealty food, think regulations on HFCS , generic meds alternatives, lawsuits, etc.
  • Long Israel Stocks: Republicans should be shamelessly supportive of Israel, from last Trump's statement
  • Short Energy: USA oil production shall be increased as promised to alleviate consumer prices.
  • Long anything Musk (space stocks included): Like he said he went all-in, so $TSLA and $RDW MDA UFO
  • Short DJT after initial pump: Trump might be forced to sell or to freeze his participation in his own social media, unusual situation.

Dems wins

  • Long Defense: Yup, nothing changes here, just missing Taiwan and its basicaly ww3
  • Long gold: Might be a bit late, but longing anything that hedges against monetary expansion might sounds like a decent bet.
  • Short Tesla: Musk is litterally fucked, market could look to inflict him pain on his only public venture.
  • Long A-STS and RKLB: Space stocks directly competing with SpaceX could get some love.
  • Long every big gov contractors: Crisis adverted, no DOGE to drastically cut gov spending.

This is for crayon eaters only, if yall quants wanna roast me you are welcome to do so

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1 week ago