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Asking y'all mouthbreathers to please share your nay-lection thesis with me
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Here are mine: NFA I'm losing money every day.
Trump wins
- Long volatility: vix calls because tariffs, gov spending cuts, and basically just a whole lot of uncertainties to be priced in.
- Short Fast food and healthcare: RFK's Make America Healthy Again plans means less money spend on healtcare in the next decades, less profits on unhealty food, think regulations on HFCS , generic meds alternatives, lawsuits, etc.
- Long Israel Stocks: Republicans should be shamelessly supportive of Israel, from last Trump's statement
- Short Energy: USA oil production shall be increased as promised to alleviate consumer prices.
- Long anything Musk (space stocks included): Like he said he went all-in, so $TSLA and $RDW MDA UFO
- Short DJT after initial pump: Trump might be forced to sell or to freeze his participation in his own social media, unusual situation.
Dems wins
- Long Defense: Yup, nothing changes here, just missing Taiwan and its basicaly ww3
- Long gold: Might be a bit late, but longing anything that hedges against monetary expansion might sounds like a decent bet.
- Short Tesla: Musk is litterally fucked, market could look to inflict him pain on his only public venture.
- Long A-STS and RKLB: Space stocks directly competing with SpaceX could get some love.
- Long every big gov contractors: Crisis adverted, no DOGE to drastically cut gov spending.
This is for crayon eaters only, if yall quants wanna roast me you are welcome to do so
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