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I have taken a deep dive to truly understand the bull thesis on this stock. Let’s consider what the positives are at the moment:
- The fall from the March high of $1200. Before the split that would be a drop from ~$1200 to $250 roughly a 80% loss in value. Bull Thesis…well after the split the numbers don’t look as bad. 1200 to 250 seems huge when compared to 120 to 25. So the drop now was only $95 vs $950. Psychologically better for a bull thesis when you look at this way…less room to climb!
- SMCI has made a complete u-turn to where it traded this time last year:Â $1200 back to $250. Bull Thesis: history may repeat itself and you can do this all over again and not make the mistakes you did last time.Â
- Low cost of entry. Bull Thesis: If you wait a little bit to buy you may be able to get it at $10.
- Hindenburg Report: Since the report came out two months ago the stock has sold off dramatically. Bull thesis: These claims have not been proven or even discussed by Charles Lang! His silence can only mean these are not true and not worth his time to discuss with shareholders. It is honorable of him to take our time into consideration and not force us to read a statement or watch a video explanation regarding the report.Â
- 10k has yet to be filed. Bull Thesis: No one knows what the status is... so as far as we know it is a fantastic report.Â
- DOJ probe: Bull Thesis: Everyone knows that the DOJ probes almost every tech stock. There hasn't been much word about this lately, so it probably means the government just forgot about it and it is time to buy calls.
- EY resigning: this one is simple. Bull Thesis: The EY resignation means Charles can save money and hire his cousins or other family member’s accounting firm for half the price.
- SEC delisting:Â Well this one depends on the accounting firm. Bull Thesis: If Charles indeed does have a family member do the audit then the numbers will be golden, delisting averted and it is time to buy calls.Â
- SP500:Â If SMCI is kicked out of the SP500 then it is just 4 more quarters of growth to get back in and the stock will hit $120 again!
So in closing: Sure there are at least 9 items here that are a black cloud hanging over SMCI. Sure other stocks don’t have these issues and are rallying to all time highs in the most bullish part of the year. Sure, you could sell and put your money in any of these others stocks and not have all these risks. But I see now if I just opened my mind and changed the way I think about SMCI there is a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. This whole time I should have done what most of the sub was doing…buy at ATH’s and DCA! I wasted almost a whole year not dollar cost averaging and now the stock is 80% below the March highs. I missed out on all that.Â
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