Over this week Trump has surpassed Kamala in various critical swing state polls and major investors such as Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones are repositioning their portfolios expecting a Trump win.

Source (CNBC): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VhJ9k9Ojyg4

Illegal Immigration has now become a bipartisan issue shared by both parties. However, it’s clear that if Trump wins the election on November 6 a vastly disproportionate amount of resources will be allocated towards combating “the bad hombres”. Trump has stated that illegal immigration will be his highest priority (even bigger than the economy/inflation).

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/19/us/politics/trump-immigration-closing-message.html

To that extent, GEO Group ($GEO) is one of the few publicly traded companies that stands to massively profit from it.

Geo Group monitoring system for ilegal immigrants

Currently, the US has over 7.000.000 unsupervised ilegal immigrants. Under the Biden administration (who's has been very pro open border and very lenient towards ilegal immigrants), only 175.000 immigrants have been under what is known as the Intense Supervision Appearance Program. This is an alternative to detaining the immigrants by forcing them to wear a GPS tracking device before they appear in court (usually they are on it for 18months).

A large percentage of those trackings are being done by GEO after winning a 5 year $2.2B contract bid in March 2020 under the Trump administration.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20200324005145/en/The-GEO-Group-Announces-Five-Year-Contract-With-U.S.-Immigration-and-Customs-Enforcement-for-Intensive-Supervision-and-Appearance-Program-ISAP

In the fiscal year 2020, during the last full year of the Trump’s administration, the company received 87 new contracts, a record high.

This was before the huge migratory influx experienced during the Biden administration.

Currently only 175.0000 immigrants are being supervised under the ISAP program

According to statistics from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, as of July 21 (2024) there are 662,566 ilegal immigrants on ICE non-detained pocket who are criminals or have pending criminal charges. It's obvious that these people (3.5X the current amount under ISAP) should've been enrolled under the ISAP program.

https://homeland.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24-01143-ICEs-Signed-Response-to-Representative-Tony-Gonzales.pdf

Currently, GEO group monitoring system contributes almost half their net operating income even though it's less than 1/4 of the company's revenue. Any increment in the GPS monitoring system applicants under ISAP will feed their operating income.

Source: https://investors.geogroup.com/static-files/1b7e2768-ef81-4b3e-b87e-43e380ea3522

GEO has been a huge supporter of Trump and became the first corporation whose PAC maxed out to former President Donald Trump’s campaign in late February.

https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/private-prison-behemoth-is-first-corporation-to-max-out-to-trump/

Currently, GEO is perfectly positioned to become an indispensable tool inside the huge policy plan that will be drafted by Trump to address the broken immigration system.

Positions: 29/11 25 strike calls