So the market booms on Powell saying “we’ll have to wait and see the data” and relaying exactly what everyone thought he would. Maybe yes to a rate cute and offering no update on path of rates/ dot plot, and no comment on the risk of leaving rates too high for too long and causing unnecessary pain if things change between now and Sept meeting.

Very well coordinated and telegraphed, something you think would have been priced in. QQQ up almost 4%, SPY up almost 2% including AH. Apparently not priced in

Meanwhile, IWM the growth play meant to benefit from lower rates is muted after the run up into the meeting on expectations of the fed opening the door to cutting rates rates, and is still lagging the SP and NASDAQ YTD. Fed meeting must have been priced in.

Rising geopolitical risk (Israel fighting on multiple fronts, never ending war in Ukraine, emboldening of China and the solidification of this new axis coupled with a good ole east vs west trade war, increasing costs to consumers and not much else) while the bulk of large cap companies are revising full year revenue guidance based off RD spending and increased costs (while many reporting inability/ difficulty in passing on further increases in costs due to tolerance of consumers to increasing prices) rising corporate and consumer defaults across all loan types. All worsening trends/ new developments this quarter that point to a less than optimistic economic picture/ worsening financial situation.

I know reading is hard-

TLDR; stonks go up on known news, despite increasing geopolitical risks and worrying trends (unemployment/defaults), while continuing to defy valuations seen even in the best market conditions. How could markets be get any more optimistic and what will it take to see a reality check that actually last more than a couple days?

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