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Doing all the maths in google sheets.
Let's assume the worst happens in Azteca, US loss. (not saying it will). EDIT: Panama will most likely beat Honduras that day but what they do doesn't even matter.
IF Canada wins or draws Costa Rica on 3/24, then the US qualifies for the World Cup automatically with a win over Panama at home on 3/27. Even if the US loses on 3/24 @ Mexico. And regardless of what Panama does between now and then.
However, if Costa Rica pulls an upset and beats Canada, then the path gets a little more muddy. Costa Rica's game after Canada is @ El Salvador, which CRC would surely be favored in. US would still eliminate Panama (and clinch no worse than 4th) with a win, but then the US could find themselves @ Costa Rica (EDIT: and needing a result) to stay in 3rd and avoid having to go to the playoff against an Oceania team.
In case anyone is new here, the US has not done well at all the last few times they've played @ Costa Rica in WCQ.
Oh Canada!!.......
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