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The US is screwed no matter whos in charge
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(Not a political post per-se)

The US is screwed for a variety of reasons, both obvious and subtle. Any policies put forward by whoever could potentially mitigate the damage, but its not going to get better. I'll list some of these reasons here:

  1. The global center of commerce has shifted to China, and no policy will shift it back. This means that corporations will have much more bargaining power over the US government for jobs and resources. In addition, nation-states are less powerful than ever before.
  2. Democracy here is doomed to collapse, because either way there will be a significant percentage of people who firmly believe that they need to destroy as much government functionality as possible because it can only be used against them by those in power, even with a substantial majority of people on your side the cost of managing those groups will be astronomical.
  3. Trust has decayed to the point that transactions or interactions between various social groups will come with an incredibly huge overhead, investment of all types will be more difficult to come by, limiting ventures both public and private to Pyrrhic zero sum games that will further degrade any solidarity between groups or non related individuals.
  4. Climate change will magnify all of these effects substantially, and even the most ambitious plans to combat it are both insufficient and vague. In addition, the rejection of nuclear power and over reliance on wind and solar by environmentalists doesn't make me hopeful that the entire grid can be powered by these technologies alone, especially with the additional load created by electric cars.
  5. The dollar will lose a substantial amount of its value (possibly leading to very rapid capital flight and collapse) the instant that the US shows any signs of serious long term instability, due to the use of the US as a safe haven for financial products. This will be greatly exacerbated by other countries emerging with stable alternative currencies and magnified by chain of trust technologies decreasing the requirement for a trusted intermediary.
  6. The national debt is running very high, and while debt is not inherently bad, debt instability more debt to pay interest better opportunities elsewhere doesn't bode well in the long run, there will eventually be *real* budgetary shortfalls as the governments credit (whether ranking or in the eyes of investors) dries up.
  7. Disillusionment will set in soon on the technology industry, as in quite a few arenas its dynamism is somewhat spent. It seems to be mostly composed of various startups waiting to be bought up by larger corps or die on the vine while sucking up tons of venture capital.
  8. Disillusionment will set in on the education system, ironically as it becomes more accessible to various classes and groups... right as the job market is further eroded by automation and great outsourcing opportunities elsewhere.
  9. Responses to this will be to lock down the economy against free trade, but this will mostly damage the consumer's already weak purchasing power and further magnify the collapse of US international standing, while doing nothing against the continuing automation, which will be the real driver of job loss.
  10. UBI or other welfare state systems, while obviously necessary in such a situation, will greatly compound friction between various groups - considering that UBI will likely be distributed equally, all groups will be using a shared resource, compounding complaints about immigration soaking up these resources, and various groups using means both legal and extralegal to exploit it.
  11. The educated and resourceful classes will have better opportunities elsewhere, whether from a fiscal or lifestyle standpoint, and the US will have to deal with brain drain.
  12. An ageing population will put further strain on the medical system and the remaining taxpayers working jobs that have survived the automation surge, considering the ability of these people still being in demand, they will likely have an easier ticket out of the US than others, while being able to send remittances to their families from elsewhere.

TL;DR -
The US is simply not equipped to deal with the problems to come, and while the current focus is on overhauling government institutions, the real problem is with us, the American population, and the environment in which we find ourselves. The government and politics can not solve these problems, which tend to reinforce and compound themselves in a vicious cycle.

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5 years ago