https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBAgEh3Ur_M

not sure how many people here play animal crossing lolll... at 7:20 this youtuber claims that the probability of finding a specific cat villager (for example if you were looking for raymond specifically) on a dodo mystery island is 0.124%

I did take stats but was awful at it and I wanted someone to check my math. in the video he used the joint probability formula if the two events were independent. but I think the events are actually dependent, because the probability of getting a specific cat villager depends on if you actually get the cat villager out of all the species in animal crossing in the first place. So in that case, the formula would be

P(A) = prob of getting the cat species

P(B) = prob of getting a specific cat villager

P(AnB) = P(A) x P(B|A)

which i plugged in 1/35 x (1/23/1/35)

= 0.0435 or 4.35%

did I do the math right? or was he right in the first place?