I think the favorite in the other semifinal is pretty easy to determine but this one seems rather tough to me.

On one hand, you have Berrettini, who was a pre-tournament favorite due to his win at Queens and been on fire throughout this tournament, especially on his booming serve. He has also shown a ton of resiliency, saving many break points in the last match. However, he did have fewer winners than UE’s last match and he has been prone to inconsistency on his topspin backhand, which is generally regarded as his worst shot. He has tried to mitigate this, however, by hitting significantly more slice backhands.

On the other hand, you have Hurkacz, who is fresh off a clean sweep of one of the GOATs. His strokes were for the most part, extremely solid, and he has shown that he can handle the Center Court pressure quite well. However, he has just played 3 days in a row, and with only a single rest day, the question becomes how well his body can hold up, especially in a 4- or 5-set match with powerful strokes back and forth. In addition, this is his first slam semifinal (though his first slam quarterfinal didn’t seem to faze him that much).

I find it hard to separate the two, but I think that Hurkacz will be the slight favorite by the public due to his consistency and the fact that he just beat Federer. However, I think Berrettini will actually win the match.

Who do you think is the favorite, and why?

For reference, Moneyline has Berrettini as the favorite at -255, and their previous H2H is 1-1 (0-1 for Hurkacz at ATP Tour level). Hurkacz won the most recent match 6-4, 6-3 at Miami Masters in the Round of 128, while Berrettini won their first encounter at the Australian Open Qualifying in 2018, 7-6 (5), 6-3