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Here's the story that i see for ABG (see image):
- Price is currently > 3/4 MA's ( ) and sitting just below the 15-day MA (-). The secondary trend line has been broken (-). No confirmed high swing or low violations ( ). We also observed a fairly strong rebound off the 200 MA. ( )
- The recent volume profile is fairly encouraging with higher than prior volume as price improves following the decline after hitting ATH ( ). We are seeing all this price ahead of earnings which may indicate that a certain positive expectation for earnings is baked into the price action seen recently ( ). The earnings report may then serve as a key catalyst for notable upside momentum but could also trigger a sharp decline if expectations are not met (-).
- The CCI showed a bullish divergence that was confirmed ( ). After CCI hit -200, recently we see a quick rebound back to a >100 zone with minimal resistance points along the way ( ). The Stoch RSI was in step with the CCI and shows an even sharper rebound from the oversold zone ( ). The key signal to watch for both of these would be see some sort of support either close to the overbought boundary line or at the midpoint of their respective zones (0/50).
- The relative performance trend (to SPX) was broken relatively recently (-) however the last month has shown relative outperformance ( ) and may break back above the relative performance trend line if things continue in the current fashion. Earnings is key here.
Overall, i would take a small long position ahead of earnings as the positive appear to outweigh the negatives at this point of time. An upside break can be reasonably expected but who knows :)
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