Hi All,

Figured I'd do a quick valuation of the Lucky Scroll Box for those looking at it.

You can find the rates and what drops by going to the shop, clicking on Lucky Scroll Box, clicking Item Details, and then clicking "Rate". That's where I got the %probability info. The value-in-crystals is from my own long-term study and posts on people's preferences for items in the shop.

Each person has different values they place in summons and other items, I've found. Pretty much NOBODY thinks the 11-for-750 (68 per mystical) is a good deal at all, so I've taken TWO different values of summons, one for those who place high value in summons (50 crystals for a mystical), and one who place low value (25 per summon). If you value summons at near zero, then you already know this pack isn't for you and therefore you don't need this.

TL;DR: To the surprise of probably no one, they really aren't worth buying unless you are, for some reason, purchasing the 750 for 11 summon 'pack'.

Here are the general guidelines for how I've valued each item:

• Legendary Scrolls are placed at a 13x value of a mystical, since that's how the probability shakes out for obtaining a nat5 (6.5% versus 0.5%).

• LD Scrolls have the same value.

  • If you don't place LD at or above the value of Legendary scrolls, you probably aren't looking at the summons the correct way. Legendary scrolls are heavily, and intentionally, overvalued by Com2Us to make them seem more attractive than they actually are for events and paid packs. They're literally worth at or less than 13 scrolls. They cannot be worth more than that (on aggregate), as defined by their probability.
  • Because LD Scrolls are way more rare than obtaining either a Legendary or 13 Mystical Scrolls, I place them at the same value. They're honestly likely higher than that, but I know a good portion of the community would push back on that. I personally think we should reframe our value of them.

• Legendary All-Attribute is placed a bit higher than that, since it gives a higher overall chance of a nat5, with the small chance of an LD nat4 or 5.

  • It kind of combines the Legendary and LD summon scrolls together.
  • I gave it an arbitrary 33% value. Might be too high, but it makes up a total of 0.10% of the total value of this box anyway, so I'm not really worried about it being accurate.

• Transcendence Scrolls/Pieces are a bit more nuanced, and nobody fully agrees on it I've found, but it essentially equals some portion of 200 scrolls.

  • It doesn't equal the full portion, because that discounts the other 199 non-nat5 summons to 0.
  • I've placed it at an arbitrary 75% of the total, or 150 summons, multiplied by whatever the value of the summon is.

With that in mind, we have the following value tables. You can decide 'where you lie' using these:

High (Personal) Scroll Value

Low (Personal) Scroll Value

Max Scroll Value (11 scrolls for 750 crystals)

With those in mind, here is the value table:

Essentially I've included each item so you can see how they compare to the total. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of the value itself still comes from the worst item (1 mystical).

Also note that I've condensed the elemental scrolls into the normal scrolls. They're essentially the same value unless you have HUNDREDS to try to snipe specific nat5s or something.

Conclusion

So, as the TL;DR above mentions: It isn't worth buying. Even at a high value estimate of 50 crystals per scroll, it's only worth 728 crystals for a 750 cost. If you have crystals running out of your ears and are spending on the 11 packs, then this has more value, but other than that: don't buy it. Just use the few tickets you get from the event and call it good.

The breakeven point for purchase would be 52 crystals for a mystical. So if 50 still seems a little low to you, for some reason (this may include some newbies who were considering buying the 750 for 11 pack but were told not to), then you can consider purchasing this.

• This will only be if you just started your account a month or two ago, and have also spent some money on the starter packs and whatnot and have 10k crystals in your inventory with not much to spend them on at the moment.

Good luck on the new event! May you get your wanted nat5! Just don't seek it from this pack. :)