Hey everyone, I'm /u/demonicsnail aka Elo Bandit. I'm here today to talk about an Other Metagame, 1v1. Recently Smogon has announced a Suspect Test on Blaziken, Mega Blaziken, and Mega Salamence. Today I'm gonna go over just the standard Blaziken and give you my thoughts on whether it deserves to be banned or not based on theory, matchups, and performance.

First off, if you're unfamiliar with the 1v1 metagame, it works like this. Each player brings three pokemon, looks at the opponent's three, picks one of their own, and plays against one of the opponent's. The first pokemon to faint loses. Obviously, some pokemon are far better than others at knocking out one opponent before going down, which is why I'll be comparing Blaziken to all the top threats of the tier.

Blaziken has the following base stats:

80 HP 120 Atk 70 Def 110 spA 70 spD 80spe

The most common Blaziken set is:

Fair Play (Blaziken) @ Life Orb
Ability: Speed Boost
EVs: 4 Atk / 252 SpA / 252 Spe
Naive Nature
- Protect
- Overheat
- High Jump Kick
- Hidden Power [Ice] or Stone Edge

Speed Boost is by far the best ability. When combined with Protect, you outspeed a massive portion of the metagame. Life Orb is arguably the best item, multiplying damage by 1.3x in exchange for chip damage, which doesn't matter all that much since you aren't surviving many hits anyway. Maximum Special Attack means you can hit the hardest with Overheat and HP Ice. Naive and 4 Atk means HJK and Stone Edge can still pack a punch. You can run a more physically biased EV spread if you desire, but this one is the most common and the most consistently effective against the majority of threats.

Let's quickly compare stats to Mega Blaziken. With the suggested spread, Speed Boost, and Life Orb, 276 Atk x1.3 = 359 Atk. 319 spA x 1.3 = 415 spA. 84 spe x 1.5 = 426 spe. Alternatively, maximum 338 atk x 1.5 = 439 Atk. Mega Blaziken has a maximum 460 Atk if Adamant or 394 spA if Modest. With a Atk or spA 448 speed after one turn of Speed Boost, M-Blaziken comfortably outspeeds standard Blaziken.

Basically, Mega Blaziken is faster and hits harder physically. Life Orb Blaziken hits harder specially and still outspeeds most of the same key threats.

Now, let's talk matchups. 1v1 is all about who will come out on top, and particular pokemon are often selected to beat other mons. Time for some calculations and explanations.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Hidden Power Ice vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Salamence: 333-395 (100.3 - 118.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You OHKO M-Salamence and he OHKO's you. If you Protect first turn and he doesn't Dragon Dance, you win. If he Dragon Dances first turn and you fire off HP Ice, you win. This matchup is 50/50.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Mega Mawile: 510-603 (167.7 - 198.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You beat MMawile unless you miss Overheat.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 252 Def Eviolite Chansey: 564-665 (87.8 - 103.5%) -- 25% chance to OHKO

156 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 252 Def Eviolite Chansey: 642-759 (100 - 118.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You lose to Counter Chansey 75% of the time if running 4 Atk EVs. You beat Chansey 100% of the time if you run 156 or more Atk EVs and don't miss HJK.

252 Atk Life Orb Blaziken Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard X: 247-291 (83.1 - 97.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You lose to CharX unless you are using 252 Atk Stone Edge. Otherwise, you lose by a wide margin. If it's a bulky char-X instead of a fast one, you lose no matter what.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken Stone Edge vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard Y: 541-640 (182.1 - 215.4%) -- guaranteed OHKO

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Mega Charizard Y in Sun: 164-192 (55.2 - 64.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Charizard Y: 131-155 (44.1 - 52.1%) -- 14.1% chance to 2HKO

You beat CharY if you are using Stone Edge and don't miss. Otherwise you will get OHKO'd. If you don't have Stone Edge, you lose unless he misses a Fire Blast or Blast Burn. If this happens, you can 2HKO with Overheat and HJK.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 0 Def Kyurem-B: 429-507 (109.4 - 129.3%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You beat Kyurem-Black assuming you outspeed. You will outspeed after a protect unless the Kyurem is Scarfed and has 232 speed EVs or more. However, most run 216 or less since more are usually wasted and better spent defensively.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Mega Gyarados: 398-471 (120.2 - 142.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You beat Mega-Gyarados only if it mega-evolves. Otherwise, Stone Edge would 2HKO but his Waterfall will OHKO you.

EDIT: Nevermind, forgot to factor in Intimidate. You lose 100% of the time.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 252 HP / 148 SpD Deoxys-D: 148-175 (48.6 - 57.5%) -- 48% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery

You lose to Deoxys-D without an early crit (1/16 chance).

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Hidden Power Ice vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Multiscale Dragonite: 151-179 (46.7 - 55.4%) -- 69.9% chance to 2HKO

You fail to OHKO Multiscale Dragonite and are OHKO'd by Outrage or Earthquake.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Hidden Power Ice vs. 252 HP / 0 SpD Garchomp: 354-416 (84.2 - 99%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You fail to OHKO max HP Garchomp and are OHKO'd by Earthquake.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Meloetta: 265-313 (77.7 - 91.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You lose to Meloetta without a crit.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 4 HP / 0 SpD Mega Gardevoir: 188-224 (67.6 - 80.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You lose to M-Gardevoir without a crit.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 252 HP / 252 SpD Mega Metagross: 367-432 (100.8 - 118.6%) -- guaranteed OHKO

You obliterate even specially defensive Megagross assuming you don't miss Overheat.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 4 HP / 252 Def Eviolite Porygon2: 242-289 (77.5 - 92.6%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You 2HKO Porygon-2 and survive Tri-Attack comfortably.

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Hidden Power Ice vs. 248 HP / 84 SpD Whimsicott: 174-205 (53.8 - 63.4%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 248 HP / 84 SpD Whimsicott: 562-663 (173.9 - 205.2%) -- guaranteed OHKO

-2 252 SpA Life Orb Blaziken Overheat vs. 248 HP / 84 SpD Whimsicott: 281-330 (86.9 - 102.1%) -- 12.5% chance to OHKO

You beat Whimiscott unless you badly misplay, use Overheat, get Sub blocked twice, and get Encored into Overheat. Just use HP Ice, you'll win.

4 Atk Life Orb Blaziken High Jump Kick vs. 200 HP / 0 Def Solid Rock Rhyperior: 257-304 (61 - 72.2%) -- guaranteed 2HKO

You lose to Rhyperior without a crit.

also,

You are outsped and OHKO'd by Scarfed Porygon-Z unless you can get a double Protect off (1/3 chance).

You outspeed and OHKO Specs Greninja after Protect, assuming you don't miss your attack.

Mega-Slowbro laughs at you.

You speed-tie Scarfed Togekiss and get OHKO'd by Air Slash. You can 2HKO with HP Ice and Overheat if for some reason the Togekiss tries to set up. You really should lose this every time.

You outspeed and OHKO Mega-Lopunny, Aegislash, Mega Aggron, and Smeargle.

You lose to Endure Custap Berry (which gives priority effect).

You lose to any and all FEAR strategies (Aron, Magnemite, Nosepass)

TL;DR for matchups

You win against:

Mega Mawile, Charizard-Y (if you have Stone Edge), Chansey (if you have 156 or more Atk EVs), Kyurem-B, Mega Metagross, Porygon2, Whimsicott, Specs Greninja, Mega Lopunny, Aegislash, Mega Aggron, and Smeargle.

You lose against:

Charizard X, Charizard Y (if lacking Stone Edge), Chansey (if less than 156 Atk EVs), "Mega" Gyarados (if your opponent has more than eleven brain cells), Deoxys-D, Dragonite, Garchomp, Meloetta, Mega Gardevoir, Rhyperior, Porygon-Z, Mega Slowbro, Togekiss, FEAR, and anyone with Endure Custap Berry.

You tie against: Mega Salamence

Basically, with the most popular set, you only beat MMawile, Kyurem-B, Megagross, P2, Whims, Greninja, MLop, Aegislash, MAggron, and Smeargle. You can hit hard and fast, and you beat things that have a type weakness to you or are extremely frail. In this aspect, you are very similar to Char-Y except the things you win against and lose to are slightly different. However, you lose to so many common threats that there's no way to see Blaziken as overpowered in this matchup and prediction based metagame. Mega Blaziken is another story for another day, but for now...

Blaziken DOES NOT deserve a ban from 1v1. He is countered by far too many things to be considered unbalanced. He may be able to deal with some top threats and is by no means a subpar pick for a 1v1 team, but a ban is in no way justified.

Thanks for reading.