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Novavax has pivotal phase 3 results coming up by Sept 30th regarding their RSV vaccine in the elderly. Phase 2 showed statistically significant benefits witha p value of .041. That was 1600 patients. The phase 3 study has 11,000 patients so if this vaccine works, they should see it with the number of patients they have.
The problem is, there are a ton of shorts on this stock right now with 62.5 million shares short. Meaning a lot of people are betting that it's going to fail.
So if phase 3 results don't look great, it's going to drop... a lot.
If the results are good, it's going to skyrocket and continue to go up as the shorts cover for an epic short squeeze.
I'm in for 500 shares right now and January calls at a $10 strike price. This is a high risk, high reward play and the question is whether or not to hold through results or ride it up as it goes through september(if it goes up) and sell before results. The other thing to consider is that if they have good results, they are a huge buyout target for some of the big pharma companies as this could be a multi-billion dollar per year vaccine.
Anyone else in NVAX or have an opinion one way or the other?
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