New filters on the Home Feed, take a look!
view details

This post has been de-listed

It is no longer included in search results and normal feeds (front page, hot posts, subreddit posts, etc). It remains visible only via the author's post history.

43
Chipotle (CMG) built loyalty program of 40 million members in only 5 years.
Post Body

I'm a long-term shareholder in Chipotle (CMG) and I am hoping to gain other shareholders opinions on the fundamental drivers of their revenue and net margin growth.

Accelerated digital adoption during the pandemic has significantly bolstered Chipotle's loyalty program, expected to sustain higher order frequency and lower customer churn rates. Chipotlanes, present in 25% of current store locations and in 80% of new openings, are poised to enhance competitive positioning against quick-service rivals and facilitate expansion into new markets.

I believe that Chipotle will open 300 new stores in 2024, and my model projects high-single-digit unit growth through 2033 (8.5%), leveraging robust unit economics (with estimated cash-on-cash returns currently in the 50%-60% range, compared to midteens to low 20s for QSR peers) and strong cash flow generation.

I personally consider management's long-term goal of reaching 7,000 US restaurants feasible, fueled by strong adoption in smaller and rural markets, as well as significant digital sales volumes acting as primary growth drivers.

What are your thoughts - can Chipotle go from 3,200 stores to 7,000 stores in the next 5 years?

Author
Account Strength
100%
Account Age
4 years
Verified Email
Yes
Verified Flair
No
Total Karma
5,420
Link Karma
315
Comment Karma
5,105
Profile updated: 5 days ago
Posts updated: 2 weeks ago

Subreddit

Post Details

We try to extract some basic information from the post title. This is not always successful or accurate, please use your best judgement and compare these values to the post title and body for confirmation.
Posted
3 months ago