(TLDR at the bottom)

Since 2020 the equity market has been in an absolute whiplash. Its been extraordinarily confusing for many and has led some to even completely disavow the markets. The markets are beautiful, incredible things filled with so much potential. So lets talk about it.

Most common investing advice: Buy index funds, VTI, SPY, etc. You've been buying SPY and VTI like the hoards told you too, but you've made no money. In fact, you lump summed at the end of 2021 because thousands of strangers online told you "its impossible to time the market" as you wallow in your -20% return over 2 years, and your inevitable 2-3 more years to break even.

The Truth: Buying SPY, VTI, or an S&P equivalent right now is basically just buying High Tech. Unless those 7 companies continue to grow linearly nonstop forever, indexes will take a permanent hit from the correction and thus the real rate of return on those investments is damaged.

You've tried stock picking: You put in a solid amount of research on $ABC stock. This company is going places no doubt, had the best EPS of their existence, maybe even made a deal with a Magnificent 7 company. So why did their earnings drop the stock price 10% and turn you into a bag holder?

The Truth: Stock movements are incredibly complicated and are often not easy to understand. If you're doing fundamental analysis, it may take years for your trade to pay off. Good numbers don't equal bullish stock.

Investment firms have been of no help: Remember that rep you spoke to at your brokerage firm? The one who gave you a "professional recommendation" to buy a 2050 target fund, and that's down a hot 25%? Both the bonds, and equities have been getting crushed and when you ask for help the answer you get is "Time in the market beats timing the market?"

The Truth: Investment firms make profit off management fees, they don't really care what you invest in so if you ask they'll give you the exact same thing every time. Literally might as well just go back to option 1 because its the same shit just cheaper.

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In times of market turmoil, you MUST do better.

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During the legendary, nonstop bull runs of 2008-2020, then 2020-2021, a monkey with a dart board could make money. EVERY Strategy will work. DCA, lump sum, stock picking, index investing. Literally everything will work, because everything goes up. This is NOT the reality of the market, its not designed to perpetually move in a straight line, which is why the "expected real rate of return" of market indexes is straight dogshit at a ripe 4.9%/annually (DM me if you want the math for this, it includes inflation and down years)

Now for my takeaways.

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Down markets are natural, and GOOD. For investors/traders that are short, its a ripe profit opportunity. For investors/traders who prefer to be long, it can create extraordinary value opportunities that later lead to huge profits. DON'T BE SOMEONE WHO ONLY MAKES MONEY IN GREEN MARKETS. Spend this time learning everything you can about macro-economics, market trends, investment risk-relationships (treasuries, equities, bonds etc), trading strategies, fundamental and technical analysis, etc. Learn everything you can, because the market is a GAME and only those who truly understand it will be able to play it effectively.

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TLDR; Down markets are excellent opportunities, common sense is not your friend when things are not "common", knowledge is power and just because everyone says the same thing doesn't make it right. Be different, do different, and let red market times inspire you to learn more and improve. If you want to be above average, don't invest like average people.