Disclaimer: much of what is written below is based on theory, conjecture, and on-screen observation. If you read it and immediately take to your keyboard to demand Canon evidence let me save you the trouble - there isn’t any. I am simply presenting an opinion and invite others to do the same.

I recently rewatched Nemesis (a far better film than it sometimes gets credit for and the provider of a truly excellent ship on ship battle, JJ could learn a thing or two for his movies) and something is bothering me. I don’t believe Shinzon’s attack on Earth would have worked. Here’s why:

In DS9, while planning operation return, Starfleet is opposed to pulling so many ships away from Earth as they believe it’s the key to the Alpha quadrant. We also learn that Betazed had a planetary defence grid, although it was obsolete. Given that Earth is the capital of the Fed, is it not logical to assume it would have its own defensive grid? One that is more state of the art? I know Mars had a defence perimeter but as the Borg breezed past that, and you’re now in a life-or-death struggle, would you not fortify the capital itself? True, the Breen walloped Earth but that was a large fleet in a surprise attack, a fleet that was itself completely wiped out. Yes, Nemesis takes place after the war so admittedly this grid might not exist at this point, so I concede this is probably the weakest point of the argument.

When Voyager returns to the Alpha quadrant, 18 ships reach a point a lightyear from Earth in moments to prevent a Borg incursion, with another 9 on the away. This included Galaxies, Nebula’s, a Prometheus class, an Akira, and an assortment of other ships. In short, a fair few of the Fed’s heavy hitters were able to pop up pretty much when they were needed.

Finally, Shinzon’s Thalaron weapon seems to take a while to charge up. As he’s sat there waiting for the dial up internet of superweapons, it is going to be literally raining star ships. Hell, we’ve seen more than one officer willing to destroy their ship in a suicide attack, I can easily see that happening here with the lives of billions on the line. A Galaxy with a full head of steam running into you is going to leave a bit more of a dent that a battered Sovereign without much of a run-up.

Therefore, I just don’t see this attack working, regardless of how heavily armed and armoured his ship is. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk.