Hello r/Science! My name is James Duehr, PhD, but you might also know me as u/_Shibboleth_.

You may remember me from last week's post all about bats and their viruses! This week, it's all about origin stories. Batman's parents. Spider-Man's uncle. Heroes always seem to need a dead loved one...?

But what about the villains? Where did CoVID-19 come from? Check out this PDF for a much easier and more streamlined reading experience.

I'm here today to discuss some of the theories that have been circulating about the origins of CoVID-19. My focus will be on which theories are more plausible than others.

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[TL;DR]: I am very confident that SARS-CoV-2 has no connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology or any other laboratory. Not genetic engineering, not intentional evolution, not an accidental release. The most plausible scenario, by a landslide, is that SARS-CoV-2 jumped from a bat (or other species) into a human, in the wild.

Here's a PDF copy of this post's content for easier reading/sharing. But don't worry, everything in that PDF is included below, either in this top post or in the subsequently linked comments.

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A bit about me: My background is in high risk biocontainment viruses, and my PhD was specifically focused on Ebola-, Hanta-, and Flavi-viruses. If you're looking for some light reading, here's my dissertation: (PDF | Metadata). And here are the publications I've authored in scientific journals: (ORCID | GoogleScholar). These days, I'm a medical student at the University of Pittsburgh, where I also research brain tumors and the viral vectors we could use to treat them.

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The main part of this post is going to consist of a thorough, well-sourced, joke-filled, and Q&A style run-down of all the reasons we can be pretty damn sure that SARS-CoV-2 emerged from zoonotic transmission. More specifically, the virus that causes CoVID-19 likely crossed over into humans from bats, somewhere in rural Hubei province.

To put all the cards on the table, there are also a few disclaimers I need to say:

Firstly, if this post looks long ( and I’m sorry, it is ), then please skip around on it. It’s a Q & A. Go to the questions you’ve actually asked yourself!

Secondly, if you’re reading this & thinking “I should post a comment telling Jim he’s a fool for believing he can change people’s minds!” I would urge you: please read this footnote first (1).

Thirdly, if you’re reading this and thinking “Does anyone really believe that?” please read this footnote (2).

Fourthly, if you’re already preparing a comment like “You can’t be 100% sure of that! Liar!!” … Then you’re right! I cannot be 100% sure. Please read this footnote (3).

And finally, if you’re reading this and thinking: ”Get a load of this pro-China bot/troll,” then I have to tell you, it has never been more clear that we have never met. I am no fan of the Chinese government! Check out this relevant footnote (4).

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Table of Contents:

• [TL;DR]: SARS-CoV-2 has no connection to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). (Top post)
• Introduction: Why this topic is so important, and the harms that these theories have caused.
• [Q1]: Okay, but before I read any further, Jim, why can I trust you?
• [Q2]: Okay… So what proof do you actually have that the virus wasn’t cooked up in a lab?
  • 2.1) The virus itself, to the eye of any virologist, is clearly not engineered.
  • 2.2) If someone had messed around with the genome, we would be able to detect it!
  • 2.3) If it were created in a lab, SARS-CoV-2 would have been engineered by an idiot.
  • Addendum to Q2
• [Q3]: What if they made it using accelerated evolution? Or passaging the virus in animals?
  • 3.1) SARS-CoV-2 could not have been made by passaging the virus in animals.
  • 3.2) SARS-CoV-2 could not have been made by passaging in cells in a petri dish.
  • 3.3) If we increase the mutation rate, the virus doesn’t survive.
• [Q4]: Okay, so what if it was released from a lab accidentally?
  • 4.1) Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi and WIV are very well respected in the world of biosecurity.
  • 4.2) Likewise, we would probably know if the WIV had SARS-CoV-2 inside its freezers.
  • 4.3) This doesn’t look anything like any laboratory accident we’ve ever seen before.
  • 4.4) The best evidence we have points to SARS-CoV-2 originating outside Wuhan.
• [Q5]: Okay, tough guy. You seem awfully sure of yourself. What happened, then?
• [Q6]: Yknow, Jim, I still don’t believe you. Got anything else?
• [Q7]: What are your other favorite write ups on this topic?
• Footnotes & References!

Thank you to u/firedrops, u/LordRollin, & David Sachs! This beast wouldn’t be complete without you.

And a special thanks to the other PhDs and science-y types who agreed to help answer Qs today!

REMINDER-----------------All comments that do not do any of the following will be removed:

• Ask a legitimately interested question
• State a claim with evidence from high quality sources
• Contribute to the discourse in good faith while not violating sidebar rules

~~An errata is forthcoming, I've edited the post just a few times for procedural errors and miscites. Nothing about the actual conclusions or supporting evidence has changed~~