1) Our epidemic curve has been effectively flat since the end of March. It doesn't look likely to get worse with our current level of lockdown. Yes the curve may spike if we lift the lockdown but if that happens it would've happened a week from now or a month from now or two months from now etc. We aren't going to eradicate the disease this way. The lockdown has always been about trying to buy the healthcare system time to prepare and avoid overcrowding.

2) I don't think there's much reason for optimism with respect to having a vaccine available within the next year or two. We don't have one for SARS, MERS, HIV, Hepatitis C, other coronaviruses etc. And we've had much more time to develop those. Maybe this could happen but I think it's better to assume it won't.

3) People aren't all going to run out and act like everything is fine the day after lockdown is lifted. You'll still see masks. People will still maintain more distance. Lots of hand-washing. I doubt people are going to hang out in big crowds anytime soon. They're going to be scared/cautious and wait until they see how things go.

4) There is a real cost to lockdown. It isn't free. Every week people are losing jobs. Sure most are furloughs now but as this stretches out small businesses are going to have to close permanently. People will be unable to pay rent and mortgages. People need non-emergency medical treatment and procedures. Kids need to hang out with other kids. We need to live our lives.

5) A case could be made for waiting for improved tracing and testing. It could potentially help mitigate a spike post-lockdown. But currently, according to the county's website, person-to-person transmission accounts for only 30% of the known cases. And I don't know it to be a fact but I have to assume the majority of these cases are ones where it's a family member or co-worker or someone else a person has been in routine contact with. We could still have an effective quarantine protocol for that situation. But another issue is many people are asymptomatic or are so mildly symptomatic they aren't likely to seek out medical care. Sure some may be diligent enough to get tested anyway but I think we should assume many will not.

Given all of these points I don't see a very good reason for not lifting the lockdown very soon. Is my reasoning broken somewhere? Please let me know.