This is the first working demo for a prediction market for Reddit Ethereum content inspired by this ethresear.ch thread. I've spent about 8 days on this so far so it's pretty rough but it is at least now a working thing and more ready for feedback and iteration.

• You stake with REC - a community token derived from karma that you receive on registration. Registration first requires pre-registering an address. More info here.
• A market "opens" by staking at least the minimum stake¹ on a side SUPPORT (thumb up) or REJECT (thumb down).
• The current market state can be "flipped" by the opposing side staking 2x the total stake of the current winning side^2.
• Flipping back and forth can continue until:
  • A threshold³ staked amount is reached, triggering adjudication
  • A time limit⁴ is reached, ending the market
  • A flip within the final hour (250 blocks) of a market automatically triggers adjudication
  • Any stake over a threshold¹ delays the end of the market (i don't think this is needed )
• If adjudication is triggered then members can vote, weighted 1 member = 1 vote
  • a member is any RECDAO registered user with karma over a threshold⁵
  • adjudication continues until a time limit is reached⁶
• Once ended, winning stakers can withdraw their stake along with a proportionate amount of the stake from the losing side
• If the market was adjudicated then a fee⁷ is burned during the first withdrawal.

How could this be used?

A filter will be added to the site to allow viewing only stake-supported posts, or to hide stake-rejected posts. In addition a simple bot could use these results to remove or allow posts on a dedicated subreddit (like r/ethcurated) or on one of the primary subs (like r/ethtrader).

1. SIG_STAKE - currently 50 10 REC
2. FLIP_PERCENT - currently 200%
3. ADJUDICATION_THRESHOLD - currently 6400 5800 REC
4. STAKE_DURATION - currently 3000 blocks (12 hrs)
5. MEMBER_MIN_KARMA - currently 500
6. VOTE_DURATION - currently 6000 blocks (24 hrs)
7. ADJUDICATION_FEE_PERCENT - currently 10%