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I made a previous post, but I realised the post might not be the shortest path to helping me: https://old.reddit.com/r/quant/comments/11wwwsc/using_some_r_libraries_for_finance_data_for
For context, I'm following this video at 8:40, attempting to model EAD, PD, and LGD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYm01d2hr6g
For this post, I'm focussing on my current problem, PD.
I got some data from https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/balance-sheet-statement and I thought that would help me model PD, similar to the video. I thought I can use totalCurrentAssets
as firm value, totalCurrentLiabilities
as short term liabilities, totalNonCurrentLiabilities
as long term liabilities. Here is the data for $INTC:
date totalCurrentAssets totalCurrentLiabilities totalNonCurrentLiabilities
2022-12-31 50407000000 32155000000 46662000000
2021-12-25 57718000000 27462000000 45553000000
2020-12-26 47249000000 24754000000 47299000000
2019-12-28 31239000000 22310000000 36555000000
2018-12-29 28787000000 16626000000 36355000000
Am I using the right data/columns? They have other columns in the 'Balance Sheet API' available for free, specifying the columns here: https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/financial-statement-free-api/#Balance-Sheet-Statement
(As for mu or expected returns, I'm just making it simple and using approximately 10%, derived from their historical stock price)
The problem is that I get 1 as probability default for pretty much every company I've tried. Eyeballing the numbers, I would expect 1, so I thought I'm using the wrong data or columns. What am I doing wrong?
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