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Am I using wrong data/columns for modelling Merton's probability default?
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I made a previous post, but I realised the post might not be the shortest path to helping me: https://old.reddit.com/r/quant/comments/11wwwsc/using_some_r_libraries_for_finance_data_for

For context, I'm following this video at 8:40, attempting to model EAD, PD, and LGD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYm01d2hr6g

For this post, I'm focussing on my current problem, PD.

I got some data from https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/balance-sheet-statement and I thought that would help me model PD, similar to the video. I thought I can use totalCurrentAssets as firm value, totalCurrentLiabilities as short term liabilities, totalNonCurrentLiabilities as long term liabilities. Here is the data for $INTC:

      date totalCurrentAssets totalCurrentLiabilities totalNonCurrentLiabilities
2022-12-31        50407000000             32155000000                46662000000
2021-12-25        57718000000             27462000000                45553000000
2020-12-26        47249000000             24754000000                47299000000
2019-12-28        31239000000             22310000000                36555000000
2018-12-29        28787000000             16626000000                36355000000

Am I using the right data/columns? They have other columns in the 'Balance Sheet API' available for free, specifying the columns here: https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs/financial-statement-free-api/#Balance-Sheet-Statement

(As for mu or expected returns, I'm just making it simple and using approximately 10%, derived from their historical stock price)


The problem is that I get 1 as probability default for pretty much every company I've tried. Eyeballing the numbers, I would expect 1, so I thought I'm using the wrong data or columns. What am I doing wrong?

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1 year ago