And it’s a whole lot worse than it looks at first glance.

To get this out of the way, I can only work off of known and recent heritage. I’m well aware Targaryen genetics likely still exist in the Hightowers, Martells, Plumms, and countless Lyseni bastards. However, none of them are recent enough to truly be considered Targaryens. We don’t know how dragon blood works, but they probably couldn’t ride dragons at 5 generations removed, and since that’s the core tenet of Targaryens, that’s the metric I’m using. Plus, nobody could reasonably expect them to assume the Targaryen name upon inheritance (a la Harrold Hardyng) at that point, so in other words, they don’t count for this at all. Only those with recent Targaryen ancestry, who are therefore considered part of the Targaryen bloodline.

The Main Targaryens

There are a few actual Targaryens still alive at the end of Dance, or who can be expected to probably be resurrected at some point. So the bloodline can’t be in that big of danger, right? Well…

Daenerys Targaryen: Probably infertile. Assuming that we can trust what Mirri Maz Duur said about her womb being barren, but Dany herself believes it to be true. By that we can infer she’s probably never gotten her period since then (since that would obviously indicate otherwise), and at over a year past birth, it’s unlikely to return. This adds a lot of validity to Mirri’s statement—I’d say we can accept it as true until we get evidence otherwise.

Jon Snow: Probably was fertile… until he died. Going by Beric and Lady Stoneheart’s respective conditions, I really can’t imagine a resurrected man is capable of making living sperm. Unless he managed to knock up Ygritte or Val and they just never told him, I don’t think he’s going to have any children.

fAegon Targaryen: Whether Targaryen or Blackfyre, most people agree he’s got some Targaryen blood in him. (And if you don’t, great, he already doesn’t count to continue their line in the first place.) However, most people also agree he’s not long for this world. With Dany invading, JonCon’s greyscale, and the Others building up in the distance, he isn’t expected to stay on the throne for long. And deposed kings do not typically have long lifespans, nor do their children tend to make it.

The Baratheons

(Gendry and Bella are not included as Baratheons due to being unrecognized bastards. So are Tommen and Myrcella, but for opposite reasons.)

Stannis Baratheon: Much like Aegon, is fighting for a throne he probably won’t end up keeping. He’s the sort of person who could never accept surrender nor cede the throne to anyone but the rightful king, which means chances are even more likely Stannis won’t make it. At least Aegon’s disputed heritage could potentially lead to a peaceful deposing; Stannis would never take that option for himself. And so he’s very likely to die.

Shireen Baratheon: If Stannis doesn’t make it, chances aren’t great for Shireen either. As a daughter she wouldn’t necessarily be killed, but she could easily be made a Septa or Silent Sister, either way ending her bloodline. And that’s assuming she even survives long enough for Stannis to lose—the wildlings want to kill her, and there’s bound to be chaos at the wall with Jon recently murdered.

Edric Storm: The most likely of the Baratheons to have kids, in my opinion. But he’s hiding because Melisandre wants to burn him as a sacrifice, and there’s no guarantee he won’t be. Doesn’t even have to be Mel—Euron could sail to Lys, too. Being a bastard doesn’t help, either… though it might save him from the consequences of Stannis’ failure to secure the throne. At least for a while.

Tarths

The Tarths have recent Targaryen blood, though we don’t know exactly from where. Regardless of if it’s one of Egg’s sisters, or some unknown daughter of Jenny and Duncan, I’m still counting them as it wouldn’t be very far back—definitely within five generations.

Selwyn Tarth: Doesn’t seem like he’s in a hurry to find a new wife and produce more heirs. Considering he’s over 50 years old, I think we can write him off as not having more children. That leaves Brienne as his only way to continue his lineage.

Brienne Tarth: Brienne probably has the best chance of anyone on this list of continuing the bloodline, to be honest. I don’t think she’s likely to die, and she’s a fertile woman with a very good inheritance even if she’s not really in line for the throne. Her problem is that nobody wants to marry her. If she ends up in a Jeyne-Arryn-type situation and never marries or has children, either because she can’t find someone or by choice of not wanting to be tied down to that lifestyle, then her line still dies with her. I’m sure she’d be able to find someone in the end, so the real risk here is her swearing off marriage and men to forge her own path. Something I’m all for in general, but bad for the Targaryen heritage she carries.

Also, she is currently being hanged by Lady Stoneheart as of AFFC, so maybe I’m incorrectly assuming that she’ll live in the first place.

Bonus Velaryons

The Velaryons have Targaryen ancestry from the Dance, and while that’s technically too far back to count, I’ll throw them in to this write-up being another Valyrian house, and one that frequently married Targaryens beforehand so probably have more Targ blood than other houses in the same situation.

Aurane Waters: First of all, he’s pissed off the Crown by stealing their fleet and running away. With Cersei imprisoned he’s not likely to be punished for this, but it definitely hasn’t won him friends in high places. He also doesn’t strike me as the type to settle down with a woman and marry her—he might father a few bastards before he gets killed in combat or however, but it’s unlikely to be with someone of Valyrian blood, and that’s assuming he recognizes them in the first place. More likely any children he has would slip away into obscurity, dragon blood fading with each generation and nowhere near the Iron Throne. He’s already past the five generation line, after all, so it might already be too far removed.

Monterys Velaryon: Like Aurane, his heritage is quite far back. He is also just six years old so obviously doesn’t have any children himself, and probably no siblings either. I’d like him to survive the series, and being a kid I don’t think he’ll be executed or die in battle, but you never know. George certainly doesn’t shy away from killing children. He’s the Lord of a household at war, and between Euron, JonCon’s potential greyscale epidemic, and whatever Aurane’s doing (that could potentially incur punishment on the Velaryon line), there are certainly plenty of opportunities for him to die. Again, assuming he even has enough dragon blood in the first place.

Conclusion

If I didn’t miss anyone, that’s everyone we know about with Targaryen ancestry in the past five generations, or otherwise a lot of Targaryen blood. And… well, that’s not very many. Things don’t look great for them. Considering Jon and Dany, the only confirmed Targaryens (yes, I’m counting Jon as confirmed), are almost certainly infertile, the line is already in a very shaky place. It has to continue on through other people if at all, and even those options are by no means a sure bet.

So what could they do? (In a perfect world?) Well, the best way to preserve the most Targaryen genetics would be pairing up the people with the most blood who actually can have children. Otherwise the bloodline risks being lost to mere attrition, like the people I excluded for their heritage being too far back. Pairing fAegon and Brienne could work. So could Monterys Velaryon and Shireen. Edric might propagate his line in Lys if people forget about him, and there’s a chance that could be with a dragonseed descendant.

But those are somewhat contrived situations, and relies on them surviving long enough to consolidate their genetics in such a way. Things I don’t consider particularly probable.

By my reckoning, the Targaryen lineage is doomed—in a generation or two, it’s very likely that nobody will be capable of riding a dragon even if they’re still around. That bloodline will be lost forever. And once it’s gone, I don’t see any way for it to come back.