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GRRM certainly plants a trail for his readers to follow, but he also plants false trails , because he does not want it to be figured out easily . I don't know if the easiest trails will turn out to be the truth . He wants to surprise his reader , and confound them a little bit , but he also wants to say that the clues were there all along , if a person looked deeply enough . A problem that i see in his later books is that i think perhaps GRRM has become a bit lost in his own labyrinth of clues , hence the massive delays and rewrites .
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The only part I think I have any concept of why: if Ned's father and brother were dead already, with his sister being the only one remaining, I can see how there might be some emotional decisions made on his end, in her favor.