Hey everyone, was hoping someone could tell me if I am doing my math wrong or if I’m on the right track here with my math: Quick summary - basically have 1 to 100 set of numbers, and rolling a “dice” or whatever you call it to get a number, for example, one roll ends up being 56.5. That would be the outcome of the “dice roll”.

Getting into the math now:

First step is rolling the dice to get over a 50, so at a 50% win chance with that being the case. Each roll is in a sense a new turn so it doesn’t change the chances of winning or losing after each turn. I want to know what the probability of rolling under 50, fours times in a row. My question mainly is, to get the probability of this happening do I reduce the 50% win chance each turn for four turns, or treat them all as a 50% win chance no matter what?

Doing the first, I get the probability of rolling under 4 times in a row @ .097%

For the second way at 50% each time I am getting probability to roll under 4 times in a row @ 3.125%

Any insight would be greatly appreciated.