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Everyone Gets Better In The Offseason: A look at predicted records from the Offseason Review Series
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In the offseason, everyone is optimistic about their team's chances for next year. I was curious as to how optimistic, so I compiled all the predicted records from the fan writeups of the Offseason Review Series.

Team Predicted Wins 2014 Wins Change
Dallas 16* 12 4
Green Bay 13 12 1
Arizona 12 11 1
Seattle 12 12 0
Cincinnati 12 10.5 1.5
Pittsburgh 12 11 1
Indianapolis 12 11 1
Denver 12 12 0
Kansas City 12 9 3
New England 12* 12 0
Detroit 11 11 0
Baltimore 11 10 1
Houston 11 9 2
Atlanta 10 6 4
Carolina 10 7.5 2.5
New Orleans 10 7 3
Philadelphia 10 10 0
St Louis 10 6 4
San Francisco 10 8 2
Buffalo 10 9 1
San Diego 9* 9 0
Minnesota 9 7 2
New York Giants 9 6 3
Miami 9 8 1
New York Jets 9 4 5
Oakland 9 3 6
Chicago 8 5 3
Tampa Bay 7 2 5
Cleveland 7 7 0
Jacksonville 7 3 4
Washington 6 4 2
Tennessee 5 2 3
Average 10.0625 8 2.0625

As you can see, most fans are very optimistic about their team - the average prediction was right around 10-6, which corresponds to an average improvement of 2 wins per team. Additionally, only six teams have a predicted record of .500 or under. A few notes:

  • New England and San Diego did not have fan reviews, so I just used their 2014 records. Those numbers don't really affect the overall picture, as the average without them is 10.03, as opposed to 10.06.
  • The writer for Dallas simply said "19-0" as their schedule prediction. If we treat that as an outlier and remove it, the average prediction is 9.8 wins.
  • /u/sio-kedelic /r/oaklandraiders wins the "Drowning in Kool-Aid" award for predicting the biggest improvement for their team, with 6 wins. (edit: turns out this was a subreddit survey, not /u/sio-kedelic's personal opinion)
  • /u/JohnnyFire wins the "Managed Expectations" award as the only fan of a team with a non-winning record in 2014 to predict that their team would not post a better record in 2015

For a game-by-game analysis of the predictions, check out /u/chemistryundergrad's post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3e47p5/offseason_review_schedule_predictions_analyzed/

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9 years ago