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In the offseason, everyone is optimistic about their team's chances for next year. I was curious as to how optimistic, so I compiled all the predicted records from the fan writeups of the Offseason Review Series.
As you can see, most fans are very optimistic about their team - the average prediction was right around 10-6, which corresponds to an average improvement of 2 wins per team. Additionally, only six teams have a predicted record of .500 or under. A few notes:
- New England and San Diego did not have fan reviews, so I just used their 2014 records. Those numbers don't really affect the overall picture, as the average without them is 10.03, as opposed to 10.06.
- The writer for Dallas simply said "19-0" as their schedule prediction. If we treat that as an outlier and remove it, the average prediction is 9.8 wins.
/u/sio-kedelic/r/oaklandraiders wins the "Drowning in Kool-Aid" award for predicting the biggest improvement for their team, with 6 wins. (edit: turns out this was a subreddit survey, not /u/sio-kedelic's personal opinion)- /u/JohnnyFire wins the "Managed Expectations" award as the only fan of a team with a non-winning record in 2014 to predict that their team would not post a better record in 2015
For a game-by-game analysis of the predictions, check out /u/chemistryundergrad's post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3e47p5/offseason_review_schedule_predictions_analyzed/
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