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Division: AFC South (2nd)

Record: 9-8-0 (4-2-0 division)

Playoffs: Nope

Introduction: The Jacksonville Jaguars of late November were a team in mathematical position to contend for the No. 1 overall seed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars of December and January beefed it bad enough to miss the playoffs entirely.

The Jags had a bit of a rough start in facing the "oh FFS they're another dynasty" Kansas City Chiefs for their first home game of 2023, followed by a loss to Houston that's a bit less surprising in hindsight. They followed it up with five straight wins before a bad 34-3 loss to white-hot San Francisco, but two divisional wins over Tennessee and Houston had many fans feeling back on track at 8-3.

Then the damn wheels fell off. A string of four straight losses started with a national overtime loss to Cincinnati in which Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain and never looked the same after, amassing additional injuries along the way as he started up to Week 17 vs. Carolina. The Jags lost every game leading up to Carolina, making the final Week 18 rematch vs. Tennessee a win-or-go-home game. Just as we had done to them the year before, the Titans played spoiler, knocking Jacksonville out of the playoffs.

A couple key pieces are in place for the Jaguars in 2024: Josh Allen received the franchise tag, and a new defensive coaching staff is in place under DC Ryan Nielsen.

2023 Offseason (Free Agency, Draft) (by InexorableWaffle)

Free Agency:

• Key Signings – Brandon McManus (K), D’Ernest Johnson (RB)
• Key Losses – Jawaan Taylor (OT), Arden Key (Edge)

Overall, 2023 Free Agency was an atypically quiet one for the Jags. We had few key outgoing players, and signed even fewer incoming ones. There isn’t overly much to say about the names here because there just…aren’t many names at all.

Draft:

• Anton Harrison, OT, 1.27
• Brenton Strange, TE, 2.61
• Tank Bigsby, RB, 3.88
• Ventrell Miller, LB, 4.121
• Tyler Lacy, DE, 4.130
• Yasir Abdullah, LB, 5.136
• Antonio Johnson, S, 5.160
• Parker Washington, WR, 6.185
• Christian Braswell, CB, 6.202
• Erick Hallett, S, 6.208
• Cooper Hodges, OT, 7.226
• Raymond Vohasek, DT, 7.227
• Derek Parish, DE, 7.240

For as extensive a list as this is, our 2023 draft class had a rather underwhelming first year in the league. Anton Harrison had a good rookie season as the Jags’ starting RT, especially as a pass protector (even if his run blocking is a work in progress), and Antonio Harrison looked like a steal in his limited playing time, netting two interceptions and a sack in 190 snaps. Parker Washington also showed promise late in the season out in the slot when Christian Kirk was injured. Outside of that trio, though, there were few bright spots this past season. Brenton Strange ended the season with just 35 yards on 9 total targets, and had more than his fair share of mishaps and penalties during his playing time. Tank Bigsby, meanwhile, struggled mightily as the primary back to Etienne, and saw his role diminish over the course of the season to D’Ernest Johnson despite the latter not being exactly fantastic in his own right. None of the other players on this list played enough to make a notable impression, as most of them either never saw the field at all, or were only out on special teams and/or as deep rotational players.

All in all, not an exceptional start, and definitely not the production you’d want from a draft where the team had 13 draft picks in total. That said, it’s not uncommon for players to struggle in their rookie season and turn it around in their sophomore season, so there remains hope for the draft class to turn it around.

Season Review

Link to season review

High Points and Low Points (by GeckoRoamin)

While this could pretty generally be broken down into "pre-December" and "December and January", here are a few specific highs and lows...

High Points

• The Jaguars snap their Indianapolis losing streak and see Calvin Ridley in action in a 31-21 win over the Colts to start the season.
• Jacksonville defeats Buffalo 25-20 in London, showing they can win over a strong AFC team. The Jaguars get a viral fan in London, too. (Usually, we only go viral for our quarterbacks' appearances or our mascot's post-win stripping.)
• The Jags defeat the Texans 24-21, earning an 8-3 record, a chance to theoretically be the Number 1 seed in the AFC, and a reputation as a potential contender.

(Quick aside here: You'll notice that, when it comes to our highlights, none of them actually came at home. That's because 9-8 Jacksonville won only three games in Duval this season.)

Low Points

• The Jaguars end a 5-game winning streak in an "embarrassing" 34-3 loss to San Francisco that saw Trevor Lawrence turn the ball over 3 times and get sacked 5 times.
• The cursed Cincinnati Bengals game saw not just an overtime loss on national television for Jacksonville but also injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Lawrence played through what turned out to be a high ankle sprain but never looked the same this season, while Kirk's injury required a core muscle surgery that sidelined him for the rest of the season.
• December 2023 and January 2024, just in general.
• Trevor Lawrence was stopped just inches short of what could have been a game-tying drive against Tennessee in Week 18. Instead, the Jags failed to score points on that and a subsequent drive, losing the game 28-20 and getting knocked out of the playoffs by a division rival.

Team Statistics (by GeckoRoamin)

Team statistics (regular season)

Passing Statistics (regular season)

Rushing Statistics (regular season) (min. 100 yards)

Receiving Statistics (regular season) (top 5 in yardage)

Coaching Staff Review (by GeckoRoamin)

Press Taylor, OC

• A man that many in the fanbase want gone appears to be here to stay. Press Taylor took over full-time play calling duties for the entirety of the 2023 season and regressed in categories that include "yards per play, rushing, scoring, third down, red-zone efficiency and DVOA". Still, Pederson largely placed the blame on a lack of offensive execution by players, including Lawrence's turnovers, saying, "It’s not play calling, it’s not the scheme or the design of plays, it’s just having the urgency of ‘we have to protect the football better.'"
• Despite a year that saw offensive struggles, particularly when it comes to getting into the end zone, the Jaguars made only two offensive staff changes: parting ways with RB coach Bernie Parmalee and assistant OL coach Todd Washington.

Mike Caldwell, DC

• Despite showing some strength in factors such as forcing turnovers earlier in the season, the Jags' late season collapse included the defense, and the biggest offseason change to coaching came on this side of the ball. Most of the defensive coaching staff was let go, starting with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell.In the final five games of the season, his defense gave up an average of more than 29 points per game.
• Caldwell was replaced by Ryan Nielsen, who had the same role with Atlanta, whose man-heavy scheme helped improve the Falcons defense in multiple categories.

Doug Pederson, HC

• The biggest criticism of Doug Pederson is not for his direct performance but rather his continued -- and aforementioned -- unwavering support of Taylor. Despite it being considered to be the key factor that lost him his Philadelphia coaching job, the dedication continues in Jacksonville. The upcoming season feels like a key year in determining whether Pederson is making the right call with the Jags to keep Press Taylor...and if not, whether he'll be able to step up and make the call to part ways. Another season of offensive underperformance and continued dedication to Taylor will put Pederson in the hot seat with the fans, and perhaps with ownership. However, it is also worth noting that Pederson has led what was one of the consistently worst teams in the league to two straight winning seasons.
• Despite being one of the worst performers in the league, the offensive line is another area Pederson isn't openly worried about. Earlier this week, Pederson said that a lack of consistency -- particularly OT Cam Robinson missing eight games -- due to injury was the biggest factor in o-line woes. "We really feel comfortable with the guys we have there," he said. (But, perhaps, this could also be a matter of the HC not wanting to throw a lineman under the bus in February.)

Trent Baalke, GM

• If you want a reaction from a Jags fan, say the name Trent Balke. The underperformance of 2023 burned off most of the goodwill that Baalke had earned with the 2022 season's surprise playoff appearance. The latest frustration (in a long line of them) is the inability to get a deal done with Josh Allen, instead using the franchise tag on him and leaving Calvin Ridley likely to become a free agent. There isn't much to say about Baalke that hasn't already been said not just by Jags fans but by 49ers fans, too.

2024 Free Agency Preview (by InexorableWaffle)

Given the Jags’ presumptive expensive re-signings, it seems probable that this is another quiet free agency for them, especially with Trevor’s extension looming on the horizon. That said, that has been incorrectly said about a number of teams who didn’t appear to have the cap space in years past, so it still makes sense to examine some potential FA targets. Just to be clear – I absolutely in no way, shape, or form expect to see us sign all, most, or even necessarily some of these players. However, if we do get tied to external free agents aside from simply filling out depth on the roster, I would not be surprised at least some of these names to come up.

Top-Shelf

• Danielle Hunter, Edge – I’ll preface this by saying that I fully expect him to be out of our price range. If we’re able to sign him, it almost assuredly means that at least one of Josh Allen and Calvin Ridley were not re-signed, potentially both. However, he is a premier player at a position of need who’s been tied to us in trade rumors for a few seasons now. Given that we’re presently rumored to be interested in him, it seems at least vaguely probable that there was some measure of fire behind that smoke.
• Haason Reddick, Edge (trade) – Not exactly a free agent acquisition, but still is listed here for a few reasons. First, he’s already received permission to seek a trade from the Eagles, so its something that could actually be on the table. There’s also been rumors that the Jags have expressed interest in trading for him. Between the draft capital it would take to trade for him and the cost of the new contract he would presumably sign as a part of said move (he has only one year remaining on his deal), it does seem somewhat improbable that the Jags end up being the team that trades for him (presuming he is traded at all, which is far from a guarantee in the NFL). However, improbable is not impossible, and he’s as good a fit as any should the Jags look to address edge rusher with a veteran.
• Chris Jones, DT – If it was fair to preface Danielle Hunter’s blurb by saying that he’s likely out of the Jags’ price range, then it would be remiss not to have that same caveat here. Chris Jones is without question the premier player in free agency (should the Chiefs not re-sign him before then, which is a distinct possibility), and will command a contract to match. As such, listing him here is almost assuredly a pipe dream at best on my part. However, he makes sense on a few fronts. He fills a position of need, and signing him means that the Chiefs (who we should assume will need to be overcome in any potential playoff run for the foreseeable future) do not sign him.
• DJ Reader, DT – Another DT with a high price tag. However, given that his role is less glamorous and that he isn’t a perennial All-Pro level player, Reader figures to be somewhat more affordable than Chris Jones. Role overlap with DaVon Hamilton would be a valid concern in signing him, so he may well not be a high-priority target for the Jags given that we’re already financially committed to Hamilton, but Reader would unquestionably prove an upgrade at the position even if there is overlap between the two.

Mid-Level

• Connor Williams, C – Based solely on his level of play, one could argue that Williams belongs in the tier above this one. He graded out as one of the top centers in the league last year, and is young enough where he realistically could do so for the next decade or so in the right circumstances. However, he’s coming off an ACL tear this past season (which isn’t the career-altering injury that it was 15-20 years ago, but still is a major injury that takes a while to truly return to form from), and center just isn’t valued that highly in the first place. Even the best ones in the league seldom make much more than $10M per year, and while the cap increase will presumably increase that number a bit, he’s still unquestionably going to make significantly less than anyone listed above. Those musings aside, though, Williams would provide a massive upgrade for the Jags’ interior O-Line, and certainly could be a priority target in free agency.
• Lloyd Cushenberry III, C – Another possible signing for the interior O-Line. He wouldn’t present as much of an upgrade as Williams and the fact that run blocking is a relative weakness of his is a point of minor concern here (considering that already is the case for a number of our current offensive linemen), but still would be far preferable to doing nothing.

Bargain Bin

• Ezekiel Elliott, RB – If the Jags end up targeting a veteran backup RB in free agency, it would stand to reason that Elliot would wind up near the top of the list. He’s no longer the elite RB that he was in his prime, but he remains great in short yardage situations and, memes about him being a center aside, is good in pass protection as well. His running power would make for a welcome addition to a backfield that was generally lacking that element this past season.
• Maurice Hurst Jr., DT – A solid rotational interior defensive lineman (when healthy) who figures to be available for relatively cheap. Injuries have been a concern and are the main reason he won’t get a larger contract (he’s played 15 games over the past 3 seasons, missing the rest due to a variety of injuries), but when he’s been on the field, he’s been quite effective in his role. Given that injury history, it would be a minor disappointment if signing him was the only change the Jags made at the position over the offseason, but still, better than running back a known weakness for however many years in a row.
• Calais Campbell, DE – Campbell’s inclusion on the list is admittedly at least partially due to reasons of nostalgia. While Campbell was only here for a few short seasons, the Mayor remains a fan favorite, and also happens to play a position of potential need. Turning 38 before the season, it goes without saying that he would not be a long-term fixture in the way that other players listed might, but he’s a known culture fit who could help the Jags get back into the playoffs (and potentially beyond) in the short term.

Upcoming Team Free Agents (by InexorableWaffle)

• Josh Allen, EDGE - re-signed via franchise tag
• Calvin Ridley, WR
• Dawuane Smoot, EDGE
• Jamal Agnew, WR/KR
• Tre Herndon, CB
• Tyler Shatley, OG
• Brandon McManus, K

Other names available here

(NOTE: Section was written prior to Josh Allen receiving the franchise tag yesterday.)

While there’s other names on the list, core discussion of the Jags' upcoming FAs has been Josh Allen and Calvin Ridley for the most part, so this section will largely focus on those two.

As our best overall player last year, it makes sense to start this section by focusing on Josh Allen. He’s coming off a season in which he was one of the best edge rushers in the league, and I fully expect his contract to mirror that. $25M per year feels like a starting point, and I frankly wouldn’t be surprised to see him push the $30M per year mark, given the jump in the salary cap for this season. No matter how steep it ends up being, though, I think basically every Jags fan would agree with me when I say that it’d be worth it. No matter how instable the team has been around him, he’s always shown up and done his job without the slightest complaint. He’s a core part of our defense, and he still has room to keep getting better. Regardless of what happens elsewhere, I don’t think it’s exaggeratory to call the offseason a failure if he ends up on another team. Re-signing him should be priority 1, 2, and 3.

The path forward with Ridley is rather murkier. On one hand, his numbers this past season look decent (not great, but decent), and figure only to get better with a year of playing to shake off the rest and to learn the system. On the other, he and Trevor Lawrence never seemed to fully get on the same page, and that disconnect cost us multiple touchdowns, which in turn cost us at least a couple games. He also figures to get an expensive contract that would come with the additional downside of escalating the 3rd rounder we currently owe the Falcons into a 2nd rounder if he signs a contract with us before the start of the league year. Considering that we’re already low on cap space before the aforementioned Josh Allen extension and that we’ve got Trevor Lawrence’s extension on the imminent horizon, it’s entirely plausible that our front office decides it’s not worth bringing him back at the price tag he might want, especially given his age (he’ll be turning 30 next season). My gut feeling is that we end up keeping one of him and Zay Jones, then turn the other one loose (Zay Jones is under contract, but easily could be a cap casualty). However, that remains to be seen.

The other names on the above list, while all capable enough players, are a multiple steps down in terms of importance, and all can be re-signed or replaced without too much heartburn either way. Smoot was a productive rotational edge rusher prior to his Achilles tear in 2022, but had an underwhelming season this past year as he worked his way back. Agnew’s been a great returner and briefly flashed as a WR in 2021 when used in that role more extensively, but has been a liability when called upon on offense since. Herndon’s a fine enough slot corner, but certainly isn’t irreplaceable. Shatley’s the longest tenured Jag and does present depth at a position of need, but he’s getting up there in age, and certainly shouldn’t be counted on as anything beyond depth. Lastly, McManus was great to start the year (going 20 of 22 on FGs in our first ten games), and unreliable down the stretch (going 10 of 15 in our last seven), much like our team as a whole.

Team Needs (in Free Agency and Draft) (by InexorableWaffle)

• Critical Need(s) to Address – Interior OL
• High-Priority Needs – Interior DL
• Moderate/Future Needs – WR, Edge, CB, RB, K
• Low-Priority Needs – LB, TE, OT
• Luxuries and/or Not Needed – QB, P, LS

Full writeup here

2024 NFL Draft Preview

Round 1:

• Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama – Arguably the most pro-ready CB available in the draft. Arnold showcases good technique on tape in coverage, and generally did almost everything you could expect from a CB prospect. If Darious Williams is released as a cap casualty, Arnold may well be the pick here as he should be able to slot into the starting lineup from day 1 without any need for development. However, it should be noted that his athleticism is a minor point of concern. Not a crippling one (he still ran a 4.5 at the combine with a 1.54 10-yard split, after all), but a concern nonetheless.
• Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo – Another CB prospect that could be under consideration. Mitchell isn’t as refined a prospect as Arnold, but has a superior athletic profile across the board. With the Jags now being in a position where they need to add a CB who can contribute from the jump given the release of Darious Williams, it does seem somewhat less likely that he is the main target here. However, if the FO trusts that Mitchell can be developed, he does project to have a higher ceiling, especially in a new defensive scheme which more highly emphasizes man coverage.
• Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama – The other high-profile Alabama CB in the draft. There isn’t too much to mention about him that hasn’t already been said about the earlier CBs in terms of why we might look into him, but no blurb about our draft would be complete without mentioning Kool-Aid because a) who doesn’t love Kool-Aid and b) he is genuinely a likely option for us as things presently stand.
• Rome Odunze, WR, Washington – Either the 2nd or 3rd ranked WR in the draft, depending on where you look. Odunze already looked to be a likely top-10 pick before a great combine on his part, so it’s distinctly likely that the Jags would need to trade up in order to draft him. That being said, he projects as a high-end outside WR who can both work the underneath routes along with deep routes, which is perfect for the Jags given that we presently don’t really have a WR who has to be accounted for over the top. If there’s rumors of the Jags trading up on draft day, my gut feeling is that it would be for him, especially if Calvin Ridley ends up walking in FA.
• Jackson Powers-Johnson, G/C, Oregon – In full disclosure, I will outright admit my bias towards JPJ here and now. If I were the Jags GM and if he were available by the time our draft pick came around, it would take all of half a second to hand the draft card in. Sure, the positional value of interior O-Line isn’t great, and sure, coaching is the most important part of whether an offensive lineman pans out. Even after accounting for those caveats, though, the meeting of talent and need is just too good to pass up, in this writer’s humble opinion. He can slot in at any position in the interior offensive line, and showcases good technique and power in both run and pass blocking. If he ends up being the Jags pick, there’s a good chance everyone east of the Mississippi will hear my cries of joy.
• Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama – Rounding out the trio of Alabama prospects, Turner is a hyper-athletic pass rusher off the edge who projects to have solid scheme versatility, able to play as either a DE with his hand on the ground or as a pass rush specialist at OLB. He already was projected to be in the top 10 in some instances before an incredible combine, so there’s a good chance that he will be long gone come the 17th overall pick. However, he could be another potential trade target, especially in the horrible timeline where Josh Allen isn’t re-signed and doesn’t get the franchise tag.

Remaining rounds here

Why Be a Jags Fan (by GeckoRoamin)

Well, do you like having hopes dashed? At the very least, do you like a sense of mystery about what your team is going to look like next season? The Jaguars have a history of sparks of greatness followed by stretches of darkness, and it remains to be seen what the team will bring to the table in 2024.

One of the better things about being a Jaguars fan is that no one is going to accuse you of being a bandwagoner. The team has never been to a Super Bowl, and its fanbase is one of the smallest in professional football -- although does have a fun international following thanks to the annual London presence. With that, you build quick kinship with anyone you see wearing Jags gear in the wild. You get to yell Duuuuuval, too, which is pretty fun.

With a still quite-young quarterback whose shown flashes of being elite and new management for the defense, there is a chance this team trends in the right direction, and you hop on board before the team makes a strong playoff run. And if not, then your new fandom will include learning a lot about what "rebuilding years" look like.