| Browns |
over |
Jets |
Flacco is playing like his Super Bowl form, only with bigger numbers for the team. The Browns are hot and their defense goes back to domination at home while the Jets will have little offensive success. New York is playing for pride right now, but that won't be enough to secure a win. |
| Cowboys |
over |
Lions |
Good game, tough pick. Dallas dropped two games to lose their lead in the NFC East. They tend to be a much tougher team overall at home than away, putting them at an advantage this week. The Lions have played well everywhere this season but they are a little more vulnerable on the road. The Cowboys can slow down their offense just a bit while the Lions give up a little too much in the passing game to Lamb and Dak. |
| Bills |
over |
Patriots |
The Pats have overachieved lately with their defense getting tighter for Belichick. They stabilized the offense with Zappe making clutch plays leaning on Zeke's running. The Bills already were caught by major surprise in the first meeting, but back at home the Bills grind this one out by spreading the ball around well with Allen. |
| Bears |
over |
Falcons |
The Falcons are not a great road team; their play-calling and execution goes out the window when on the road, especially in the elements. Eberflus' Bears defense is overall a bad matchup because it can be tough against the power run and take away outside opportunities. Fields also will be motivated to show what the Falcons are missing in him. Chicago in a slight upset. |
| Raiders |
over |
Colts |
Vegas had big statement wins in both division games with L.A. and KC. That's great for Pierce's chances to be the full-time head coach and maybe becoming their version of Dan Campbell. The Colts can stop the run and run the ball and make it rough on O'Connell, but I think they ride the hot streak. |
| Rams |
over |
Giants |
The Rams' offense is rolling with Williams running and Stafford passing to healthy weapons. The Giants have zero answers defensively for both. The Rams will be OK giving up some big pass plays again before Donald and the defense shut the door. |
| Eagles |
over |
Cardinals |
The Cards are playing hard with Murray. Unfortunately, Gannon's defense is worse than what he left behind in Philly. When Hurts meets Murray, there's some Sooner pride on the line, but the Eagles extend their playoff positioning. |
| Buccaneers |
over |
Saints |
The Saints are a mystery every week, with a pretty hot passing game around Carr one game, but a sputtering run game to deal with in another. That's on a good day when Carr doesn't have a brainfart and throws it way over their heads. The Bucs offense as a whole is chugging along with Baker and White at the controls. Tampa can taste a repeat division title, but the Saints with an extended week off will make it a close one and could pull off the upset. |
| 49ers |
over |
Commanders |
The Niners will go from facing a terrific pressure and coverage defense from Baltimore at home to facing the complete opposite of all that in Washington. Losing Williams to a new injury is a big hit to the blocking and protection, but whether it's a healthy Purdy or Darnold, this will be a get-well game for San Fran. |
| Jaguars |
over |
Panthers |
The Jags have been a streaky team all season, winning five games in a row at one point, but then losing four consecutive matchups. Carolina showed more passing game pop with Young last week. If Lawrence grinds through another injury, he'll be the better QB here. |
| Ravens |
over |
Dolphins |
Baltimore's pass defense is incredible covering the deep pass with an active secondary. Miami's O-line will take some hits and Tua also will be down one Waddle to limit the coverage burden on Baltimore. The Phins can run to stay in the game early but the Ravens will eventually get to tee off on Tua. |
| Texans |
over |
Titans |
The Titans will keep showing good fight with Vrabel but the offense just doesn't have enough juice beyond the run. They will keep playing tough defense and might get a break with Stroud uncertain to return from his concussion. Houston will be desperate to grind through a division game to keep its playoff hopes alive. |
| Seahawks |
over |
Steelers |
The Steelers are set to stick with Rudolph in their playoff push, but his aggressive passing will be curbed more by the strength of the Seahawks' defense. There will be enough mistakes with those big plays and Smith can find some good holes in the Steelers' secondary with his top receivers to answer in a few crucial moments. |
| Broncos |
over |
Chargers |
Denver has been sloppy offensively and their defense still has too many breakdowns with bad run-stopping and coverage lapses. The Chargers are fighting hard for Giff Smith and will come thinking they can run the ball well, while their defense gets a break with possibly no Sutton. Denver barely takes control with Stidham, but it'll be a much closer game with Wilson benched. |
| Chiefs |
over |
Bengals |
KC suffered a big letdown despite playing dominant pass defense at home against the Raiders. They're back at home facing a much weaker defense that struggles most against covering TEs and stopping the run. Browning was curbed in Pittsburgh and KC is a much tougher challenge on the road. Mahomes and Kelce get that long-awaited get-well game. |
| Packers |
over |
Vikings |
Sunday Night upset pick. Love is feeling better with young weapons showing up each week with some help from his RBs. The Vikings' pass game has become aggressive with Mullens but will be missing key target Hockenson. Green Bay keeps its slim wild-card playoff hopes alive by dashing that of its rival. |
Got it, thanks. Still picking Denver, but it'll likely be a toss-up.