| Saints |
over |
Rams |
This one is a tough pick. Both teams are .500 and fighting for a spot in the playoffs. The Saints took advantage of home games against mediocre teams recently, and their defense is on point. The Rams have averaged 33 PPG recently and Stafford has 12 TDs and one INT in that stretch. Obviously, I'm biased and I know I'm picking the upset, but I'm looking for a Christmas miracle here. |
| Bengals |
over |
Steelers |
Cincy has won three in a row with backup QB Browning, who is averaging 317.7 passing YPG in that stretch. Pittsburgh beat the Bengals 16-10 in their first matchup in Browning's first start, but the Steelers are on the brink of playoff elimination. Will Pickett return for this game to give them a shot? |
| Bills |
over |
Chargers |
The Chargers bombed in a 63-21 loss to Vegas that led to Staley's firing. Stick struggled in his first start, and Buffalo is coming off huge wins against KC and Dallas. Buffalo is 0-2 as a double-digit favorite this season, and the bump could be there with interim coach Smith, but I'm not betting on that. |
| Colts |
over |
Falcons |
Back-to-back losses and an inability to produce a running game have relegated the Falcons to third place in the NFC South. They're in a must-win spot against a Colts' team that is 5-1 in its last six games. Indy has produced 13 turnovers in that stretch and are 5-0 when favored by three points or less. There is a trap-game feel here, but I'll stick with the favorite. |
| Seahawks |
over |
Titans |
Seattle's pass defense has played well with pressure and coverage. The Titans are struggling to pass the ball well and now Levis is hurting. Seattle can win this battle up front on both sides, stopping the run and running the ball well. Carroll's team can stay in contention, while Vrabel will just work to play for some pride. |
| Lions |
over |
Vikings |
The Lions can clinch their first NFC North championship with a victory against the Vikings. It's not about the home-and-road splits with Goff, it's about turnovers. Detroit is 8-1 in games with one turnover or less, and the Vikings have a -6 turnover margin and a third-string QB in Mullens facing that Detroit pass rush. |
| Jets |
over |
Commanders |
The Jets won't entertain starting Rodgers after being eliminated from the AFC playoffs. It's the home finale and New York is favored, though they are 0-2 in that situation this year. Washington is in a five-game skid in which Sam Howell has taken 30 sacks. |
| Packers |
over |
Panthers |
Love gives some inspiration to Carolina that despite being in a much smaller frame, Young will find his way next season as one of the better passers. Green Bay's defense has been the much bigger culprit of late, allowing a combined completion percentage of 79.6%. A heavy Packers crowd in Charlotte boosts the visitors to ending a two-game losing streak. |
| Texans |
over |
Browns |
Cleveland has been rocking with Flacco and between Cooper, the RBs, and Njoku, he has the weapons for his pocket passing. But the Browns are only 2-4 on the road vs. 7-1 at home, where their loaded defense also tends to play better. The Texans' defense is stepping up well under Ryans. |
| Jaguars |
over |
Buccaneers |
Jacksonville did not enjoy the AFC North tour with three consecutive losses, and now they are catching a Bucs team riding a three-game winning streak. Baker has seven TDs and one INT in that stretch, but he also had a completion percentage below 50% in two of those games. For now, we will assume Lawrence clears concussion protocol in a get-right game. |
| Bears |
over |
Cardinals |
The Cardinals are 2-3 since Murray returned and scored 29 points on San Fran in Week 15. The problem is Arizona still allows 26.9 PPG. Chicago has won their last three home games and Fields will keep fantasy owners happy in Week 16. The Bears are 0-2 as a favorite this season, so I'm not hopeful for this pick. |
| Dolphins |
over |
Cowboys |
Dak's hot streak ended in chilly Buffalo. It will be much warmer in Miami for this next battle with an AFC East team. With the Dolphins' defense playing well and just coming off a shut out of the Jets, can Dak thaw in time to outduel a limited Tua? Dallas will be in big trouble with its man defense should Hill return to flank Waddle. The Phins will contain Dak with some pressure and force Dallas to dig deep with its running game. |
| Broncos |
over |
Patriots |
Will this be the last Belichick vs. Payton matchup? Denver has won its last four home games and despite a blowout loss last week remains in the playoff hunt. The Patrs are reduced to a spoiler role here. New England is 2-4 and averages 16 PPG on the road. |
| Chiefs |
over |
Raiders |
The Chiefs have won the last six meetings with the Raiders by an average of 17.2 PPG. If Pierce wants to be the full-time coach for Vegas, then breaking that streak could be a tipping point. KC is highly favored, but the Raiders keep it interesting if O'Connell can avoid turnovers. |
| Eagles |
over |
Giants |
The DeVito showcase will either hit its expiration date or take off exponentially in the next three weeks with two matchups against the Eagles. Philly beat Dallas and Washington by a combined total of eight points. If the Giants cannot generate a running game behind DeVito, then this will be much worse. Philly needs this to be a get-well game. |
| 49ers |
over |
Ravens |
The Ravens and Niners rolled out their usual respective conference dominance in Week 15 and it's hard to find two hotter teams in the NFL. San Fran's offensive versatility and explosiveness are better than Baltimore's. Purdy stays sharp against a tough pass defense with plenty of help, while Jackson's playmaking is contained enough in crunch time. |
Appreciate the data check.