| Saints |
over |
Jaguars |
It's a damn shame that it's come to this, but the Saints are pretty much home underdogs, even with Lawrence possibly out with a knee injury. The defense is consistently amazing but the Saints offense is week to week, showing greatness that turns into predictable sourness. But hell, tomorrow is my birthday and I'm gifting myself a Saints win, so there! |
| Raiders |
over |
Bears |
This could be a battle of backup QBs. Jimmy G Fields might both be out, it's Hoyer the Destroyer against rookie Bagent. Hoyer, who played for the Bears last season, is the more-experienced option, but this is a coin-flip game on the road. Crosby forces a late turnover, the Raiders win three in a row. |
| Browns |
over |
Colts |
Cleveland knocked off the Niners and has the top defense in the NFL at 200.4 YPG. It's a simple formula against the Colts, who have eight turnovers in their three losses. This will be tough to generate a running game behind Minshew. Watson could return from his injury and that will help the offense in a tight road test. |
| Bills |
over |
Patriots |
The Pats can't score, with just 20 points over the last three weeks, and Jones' time as the starting QB is running short. The Bills are 6-1 against New England since Brady left, and the last five regular-season wins have been by double digits. Belichick will do his best to slow down Buffalo, but look for a better offensive performance from Allen. |
| Giants |
over |
Commanders |
These teams played to a 20-20 tie in their last matchup at New York. The Giants average 10 PPG through a four-game losing streak, and Jones remains uncertain. Barkley is back, however, and the Commanders allow 129 rushing YPG. Howell is coming off a three-TD performance, but he's also taken 34 sacks in six games. |
| Buccaneers |
over |
Falcons |
The Falcons have scored just 13 points in two road losses this season, and Baker has managed to play well despite a running game that ranks 29th at 78.8 YPG. I'll take the better team at home that has the better QB. |
| Lions |
over |
Ravens |
Best day game here. The Lions are one of three teams with a top-10 offense and top-10 defense. Detroit is 3-0 on the road and 5-1 ATS this season. Baltimore is close to being a top-10 on both sides, but they rank 11th in offense. Look for the Lions' defensive line to frustrate Jackson. Should be an awesome game to watch. |
| Steelers |
over |
Rams |
The Rams' running game perked up around Williams and that should help against a Pittsburgh pass rush with Watt, who has eight sacks. The Steelers have to account for Donald, who has eight TFLs. Pittsburgh’s offense is under criticism with OC Canada. Will they get enough out of Harris and Warren to win? |
| Seahawks |
over |
Cardinals |
The Cards have lost their last three games by an average of 16.7 PPG, and they committed five turnovers the last two weeks. Dobbs will be pressed to make plays against a Seattle defense that ranks in the top five in rushing defense. The Seahawks won both meetings by 10 points last season. |
| Packers |
over |
Broncos |
The Packers had a bye week, and the key will be getting Jones back. Green Bay ranks 28th in the NFL in rush defense, and that means Williams and McLauglin should give Wilson support in the running game. Love has had ups and downs, and this is a tough road environment. The Broncos are even worse against the run (172.3), so if Jones is back the Packers should be fine. |
| Chiefs |
over |
Chargers |
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 13.4 PPG since the Week 1 loss and Mahomes is making it work with Kelce and Rice. Can the Chargers disrupt that on the road coming off a short week? That will be on Herbert to have success against that improved defense. L.A. is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog under Staley. The Chiefs have won the last three meetings by six points or less. |
| Eagles |
over |
Dolphins |
Best night game here. Tua and Hurts meet in an anticipated matchup between former Alabama QBs. Tua took four sacks in Miami's only loss this season, and the Eagles are sure to dial up the pressure as a result. Hurts – who has struggled with INTs – will have a bounce-back game, and the defense will break a three-game turnover drought. |
| 49ers |
over |
Vikings |
CMC and Samuel are dealing with injuries, but Jefferson is still out for the Vikings. That puts a little more on Purdy and Cousins. The Niners will need to bounce back, but the Vikings have not lost at home by more than a TD under O'Connell. Keep an eye on those injury reports. |
That's honestly a coinflip for me for that reason.