| Chiefs |
over |
Broncos |
Mahomes is 11-0 against the Broncos, his best record easily against any team. The Broncos' only win came in a road win at Chicago. At home on a short week won't be an issue for KC, especially with Kelce looking healthy enough to go. I'm hoping for a close division game, but Denver has very little chance to finding that spark by tomorrow night. |
| Ravens |
over |
Titans |
The Ravens are playing their fourth road game in five weeks, part of a brutal stretch. Jackson and Tannehill are both taking too many sacks with shakey O-lines. The Titans have three games where they have scored 16 points or less. Look for Baltimore to outscore Tennessee, but not without taking some licks in the process. |
| Falcons |
over |
Commanders |
Atlanta is 3-0 at home with two big finishes, while the Commanders are 31st in scoring defense. Howell also has a league-high 29 sacks. Ridder has starting improving throwing to Pitts and London, which will cause issues for Washington's defense. |
| Vikings |
over |
Bears |
Minnesota may be without hamstrung Jefferson, but they still have plenty of firepower around Cousins with Hockenson, Addison and Osborn to attack the Bears pass-rush less defense all over the field. Fields will stay hot passing but the traditional running game is hurting and the Vikings should work to double-cover Moore and force him to throw elsewhere. |
| Bengals |
over |
Seahawks |
While the Bengals' are at 2-3 and the Seahawks are at 3-1 coming out of a bye, this is an optimistic matchup for Burrow and Chase to stay hot against a struggling pass defense. Defensively, Cincinnati has the better pass rush with Hendrickson and Hubbard to take advantage of the Seahawks hurting at the tackles for Smith. |
| 49ers |
over |
Browns |
These teams have two amazing defenses at this point in the season, with Cleveland allowing just 15.0 points and 196.8 YPG, and San Fran at 13.6 points and 266.8 YPG. Schwartz will bring the pressure against Purdy to be sure. Watson should return this week. The Browns have won the last three home meetings against the Niners, but this week feels different. |
| Dolphins |
over |
Panthers |
The Dolphins are the most-exciting offense in the NFL where Tua is cooking with the help of three players who have scored at least five TDs in Mostert, Achane and Hill. Carolina has a future with Young, but this team is not ready for this challenge quite yet. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS this season, too. |
| Jaguars |
over |
Colts |
Indy is playing their fourth division game in six weeks, and Minshew has been efficient. Moss and Taylor give them a little more run support, and Jacksonville returns home after a two-week stay in London. The Jags pulled away from the Colts in the second half last time. This one will be a little tighter in the fourth quarter. Coin flip on this one. |
| Saints |
over |
Texans |
NOLA needed that shutout last week. The Saints had been unpredictable up to that point, but the 34-0 victory against New England improved the team to 2-1 S/U on the road. Houston offers another opportunity, as Stroud has yet to throw an INT and hasn’t taken a sack in the last three games; a challenge the Saints defense will savor. Carr hasn’t put up big numbers, but he hasn’t thrown an INT the last three weeks and he is improving every week with his receivers. |
| Patriots |
over |
Raiders |
This Belichick-McDaniels matchup is the toughest game to pick this week. Meyers – who lateraled the ball in New England’s loss to Vegas last season – plays for the them now. The Pats have only scored three points in the last two games. If Jones can’t win here, then it might be time to go to Zappe full time. Will Jimmy G haunt Belichick here? Not confident at all in this pick. |
| Rams |
over |
Cardinals |
Arizona has been competitive with Dobbs, but Conner’s shoulder injury and the team’s struggles in pass defense are hard to overcome on the road. The Rams got Kupp back with Stafford, but they’re struggling to run the ball. Close win goes to the home team off their bye. |
| Eagles |
over |
Jets |
Philly has been road warriors to this point. The offense is generating 404.6 YPG with Hurts, Swift averages 5.7 YPC and Brown ranks fourth in the NFL with 541 receiving yards. There are too many options for the Jets to defend, and that will be apparent in the second half. Wilson – who has completed 72.3% of his passes the last two weeks – will keep it interesting, but not enough to pull off a home upset. |
| Lions |
over |
Buccaneers |
Hard pick, being that Tampa Bay is at home coming off their bye. But Detroit has won three straight games by 14 points or more. Campbell has built a NFC contender that has been ruthless on the offensive and defensive lines. Should be a great matchup. |
| Bills |
over |
Giants |
New York battle. The Giants can’t protect Jones, Barkley’s status continues to be in doubt, and it has been a disaster from the start for one of last year’s surprise teams. The scary part is New York forced three turnovers and still allowed 524 yards against Miami. Buffalo won its first two home games by 28 points. |
| Chargers |
over |
Cowboys |
Dallas has been terrible on the road in West Coast losses to Arizona and San Fran. Dak has a 69.9% completion with two TDs and four INTs. They are again in Cali facing the Chargers – who are coming off a bye and have played four games decided by seven points or less. The more rested home team gets it this week. |