tl;dr: I think so. Turns out, nominating a moderate is a good idea if you want to win the presidential election.

I know polls are imperfect, but indulge me if you will. On May 21, Biden was leading in States worth 273 electoral votes, according to 270 to Win. Now, he's leading States worth 272 (AZ and WI flipped, his other States stayed the same). How can that be when his lead in the national polls has gone from 6% to 9.6% in that same time, according to 538? Because Biden is gaining in States that were leaning toward Trump. Trump had 123 electoral votes that were "Safe" or "Likely," now he only has 84.

I think this is actually good news. Biden isn't running up the lead in States he was already winning, he's making a bunch of Republican-leaning States competitive. To be clear, I don't think States like Arkansas are really "Toss-ups" just because the incredibly limited polling from that State is close. But Biden is expanding the possible combinations of States he could use to win.

Like the rest of this sub, I'm biased toward Biden over Bernie based on policy. But I think this polling suggests it was a good idea to go with a moderate. Would Bernie have a lead in NC right now? Maybe. But given that he lost handily in the Democratic primary in NC, I find it hard to believe he'd be wining over moderates in NC like Biden apparently is. The unfortunate truth for Dems is that presidential elections are decided by States that lean Republican. The polling is showing that a moderate has a good chance to be competitive in those States. I doubt the same would be true for Bernie, but I could be wrong.