Coming soon - Get a detailed view of why an account is flagged as spam!
view details

This post has been de-listed

It is no longer included in search results and normal feeds (front page, hot posts, subreddit posts, etc). It remains visible only via the author's post history.

9
Who would you take, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Michael Porter Jr? A closer look on two hyper-efficient 22-year old scorers
Post Body

In the 2018 NBA Draft, the NBA welcomed numerous talented studs, even compared to other star-studded years. Luka Doncic looking like a future MVP, Trae Young - a seemingly perennial all-star/all-NBA, tenacious scorers in Collin Sexton and Gary Trent Jr, solid players like the Bridges brothers, and Mitchell Robinson, a solid defensive center in the Knicks, and don't forget JJJ, an 18/5 guy for Memphis in just his 2nd year.

Recently, after MPJ has been thrown in the spotlight with Murray out, and, for the last 10 games, has been averaging 25PPG on 67%TS. Hell, the past 27 games, he has been averaging 23PPG on 69%TS!

Absolutely nuts! Then I remembered the other guy in the 2018 draft, who we also know as an efficient scorer. SGA. SGA has averaged 24PPG this season on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Reddit loves him, OKC loves him, stats love him. He's gone under the radar and has been decommissioned, assumingly because OKC can't seem to consistently tank with him on the court. He's that good.

However, lately I've seen more and more people saying they'd take MPJ over SGA, or MPJ's ceiling is higher than SGA, third to Doncic's and Zion's. There may be some truth to this, but how sure are we that SGA is also done improving? This is his 3rd season of improvement, and seems to be far from his actual ceiling too.

For discussion purposes, and because I have too much time to spare, let's take a closer look at SGA and MPJ, and discuss, as observers of the sport, who would you take? Who do you think will be better? Who can be the number 1 guy on a championship team?

The stats!

Frame:

MPJ: 6'10 218lbs 7" wingspan

SGA: 6'6 198lbs 6'10.5 wingspan

For the season:

Player Points Assists Rebounds True Shooting
Michael Porter Jr 18.7 1 7.6 66%TS
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 23.7 5.9 4.7 62%TS

At first glance, SGA seems to be better. 5 more points per game and 5 more assists per game on an efficient 62%TS.

However, again, the past 27 games, MPJ has been scorching hot, 23PPG on 69%TS makes you incredibly optimistic for the future. The past 4 games he's at 31PPG! We can observe that these hyper-efficient high-scoring games are being more and more common, and MPJ has shown consistency on being able to shoot over defenders or cut to the basket.

But there's a reason why MPJ is efficient, and we could possibly attribute some of his success in efficiency to MVP candidate Jokic. With this, we'll go to the crux of analysis. HOW does SGA and MPJ get their shots? Well you'll see they both score efficiently on entirely different ways.

Player FG% 3P% ASSISTED%
Michael Porter Jr 54% 44% 79%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 50% 41% 12%

Here you'll see the biggest discrepancy. MPJr is assisted on 78% off his points! So much higher than SGA's 12%. The two players are so different it's not even funny, the gap is HUGE. Not only because MPJr's Points of ASTs is high, but because SGAs % is so low too! To put this into perspective, Collin Sexton, another volume scorer from this draft class, is averaging 24PPG with 46% of his points coming from assists. This is with the Cleveland Cavaliers! NOP's Brandon Ingram is at 44% even with Bledsoe as the halfcourt point guard (Though Zion has been thrust into the point-forward role recently.)

So here we know two things: MPJr gets assisted a lot, and SGA barely gets assisted at all.

Let's take an even closer look on how these two studs get their buckets

MPJR

Distance FG% % of shots taken ASSISTED%
By the rim 83% 23% 70%
All two pointers 63% 54% 70%
3-Pointers 44% 45% 93%

SGA

Distance FG% % of shots taken ASSISTED%
By the rim 63% 55% 6%
All two pointers 54% 70% 7%
3-Pointers 42% 30% 30%

What we can observe:

MPJr is elite, %-wise, in terms of getting buckets. You could say he will almost always score when he's inside, and will score well above league average everywhere on the floor. At the same time, SGA is also one of the best young scorers there is, although there is much to improve in terms of finishing (Elites such as Kawhi, Butler, or Jaylen Brown are at 72-74%FG by the rim), he is still a well above average scorer.

What we can watch:

Both kids have different approaches to offense. MPJr is a supercharged scorer who will get to his spots, and, most likely, get a bucket, everywhere on the court. There is literally no place on the court where he is a below average scorer. As long as Jokic gets him the ball, MPJr will score. He has been on a tear the past 10 games, and if you watch the games, you'll know the kid is a phenomenal scorer. He's like a supercharged Klay Thompson at 22 years old. (Defense is another discussion)

SGA is an ELITE shot creator. He is elite at driving, and will get to the rim more often than not. 43% of his FGs come from ISOs, and he's making them at an efficient clip, on .98 points per possession as the ISO-man, 5th in the league in ISO frequency. More efficient the Lebron, Tatum and Kawhi as an ISO scorer. He gets even better in the pick and roll, 1.12 points per possession. Of the top 10 most frequent PNR handlers, he has the highest PPP, higher than Luka, Trae, Dame, Lavine, and Mitchell.

Conclusion:

Both are studs. Certain teams would prefer certain players, depending on fit, playstyle, current roster, injury concerns, and other things. One thing, however, is for certain: the 2018 draft is nuts!

My question to you guys: Who would you rather have in your team right now? Who would you take to build around?

These questions aren't meant to divide the people on either player, rather to spark discussion, on whose skillset do you think is more valuable today, and how much more can these kids improve in the future, in the eyes of us the fans.

Author
Account Strength
100%
Account Age
6 years
Verified Email
Yes
Verified Flair
No
Total Karma
190,665
Link Karma
12,127
Comment Karma
177,317
Profile updated: 1 day ago
Posts updated: 7 months ago

Subreddit

Post Details

We try to extract some basic information from the post title. This is not always successful or accurate, please use your best judgement and compare these values to the post title and body for confirmation.
Posted
3 years ago