Hi all,

This is my first OC post so please be gentle! :)

I finished watching "The Last Dance" couple of days ago and it made me think how good Micheal's last season as a Bull really was. I decided to measure that performance in terms of "weighted" points scored and use weights that put more pressure into scoring important buckets.

I analysed it from three angles: (1) looking at game profile, (2) investigating in-game state at the moment of scoring, (3) player performance. See description of methodology below:

Game profile factors:

• Stage of the season – point scored in first game of the season is less important than the one scored in last game
• Points difference at the end of the game – every point scored in close matchup is more important than in “blowout” win
• Strength similarity – it favours points scored when both teams are equally strong

In-game factors:

• Stage of the game – point scored at the beginning of the match is less important than the one scored in last seconds
• Running margin – points difference after score. It favours scoring when score is close.

Player performance:

• Relative points scored – it boosts games when player scored a lot more points than his season average
• Players’ team strength – correction factor. I had to slightly bump result for players playing in dominating teams that didn’t have a lot of opportunities to score “important” (according to my definition) points

Results:

First interesting conclusion see chart below:

Top \"weighted\" (clutch) points scorers each season

Jordan's 1997-98 season is by far the most "clutch" in recent history. Without reliable second scoring option (Pippen was injured throughout most of the season) Mike had to carry his team and make lot's of important buckets. Only handful of players had similar performance to Jordan's "Last Dance":

• 2000-01 Iverson's MVP season (and trip to Finals)
• 2013-14 Durant's MVP season (trip to Western Conference Finals)
• 1990-00 Shaq's MVP season (and Championship)

Iverson, Durant and Shaq were arguably at their peaks during these seasons. What is even more shocking is that it was MJ's 13th season after being drafted!

Second interesting conclusion on the scatter plot below showing performance of top NBA players in their 13th seasons.

https://preview.redd.it/0hm7qfslrr051.png?width=1164&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=43e0f17057e8a1e2d1fcb6de944fd647d079d358

Horizontal axis are total points scored in that season, vertical axis shows my "weighted" points. Clearly we can see cloud of points in bottom left-ish part of the chart representing whole array of players who at that point of their careers became role players or secondary scoring options. Most of them are without any doubt either current of future Hall of Famers. Three players in top right of the chart are: LeBron, Kobe and MJ. But still Jordan is significantly further than anyone else.

Any questions - let me know! Working with NBA data was very enjoyable so I'm open to any suggestions on how to improve it!

Bonus 1: I created shiny dashboard: https://nbaclutch.shinyapps.io/nbaClutch/ feel free to give it a go.