Paul George's decision to re-sign in Oklahoma City provided one of the bigger surprises of the summer. However, it was immediately met with some backlash from disgruntled outsiders. PG isn't that good. OKC isn't that good. Who cares.

And it's easy to understand those arguments. After all, the Thunder won 47 games two seasons ago. After adding Paul George? They won a grand total of... 48. So given that, why should we care about OKC? Why should we consider them a genuine threat? Here's why.

the over-achievement of 2016-17

I never want to label anything in sports as "lucky" or "flukey," because even good breaks are the product of skill. That said, there are certain statistical factors that we can usually point to in order to predict future outcomes.

Among those, point differential. One of the first conclusions of analytics was that "point differential" is actually more predictive of future results than simple win-loss record. That's less true in basketball (where good teams can often turn on the gas late), but it's still more true than not.

And by that basic metric, we should have red flagged Oklahoma City's 47-35 record two seasons ago (Westbrook's MVP season) as an overachievement. The Thunder's point differential was only 0.8, more in line with a 42-win team than a 47-win team.

The reasons for that disconnect came from a lot of close wins. According to NBA.com, the Thunder went 26-16 in tight games (defined as 5 points or less). Analytics also suggest that those tight wins and tight losses are likely to regress to the mean (which would be .500 or so).

Another high-variance stat that tends to regress to the mean would be three-point shooting. That season, Russell Westbrook shot a career-high 84.5% from the free throw line and (more surprisingly), a career high 34.3% from beyond the arc. That was a huge leap for a player who had shot below 30% in each of the two seasons prior.

Players can certainly improve over time, so it's not outside the realm of possibility that Westbrook was simply on the upward trajectory. That said, it was his 9th season in the league after showing a stagnating three point percentage the prior 7 seasons. More likely than not, he had "over-achieved" from the line and would regress the next season.

So the TL;DR of this all is that the Thunder were not a "real" 47 win team two seasons ago. They were about a 42-40 level team that happened to catch some good breaks and play above their heads.

the under-achievement of 2017-18

Basically everything that went "right" for the Thunder the prior season went "wrong" this past season. Let's take a look at all our indicators again...

Point differential. This time around, the Thunder achieved a healthy point differential of 3.4, nearly 3 full points better than their mark the season prior. To me, that indicates that they should have won about 48 games, as they ended up doing.

In fact, you can make an argument that they should have done even better than that. In tight games and "clutch" situations, they lost some close ones this time around, going a modest 24-22. NBA.com also charted their three point shooting as a mere 29.2% in those clutch situations, a mark below their normal standards. If a few more bounced their way, they could have hit the 50 win mark.

And again, let's turn to their most impactful player Russell Westbrook's shooting numbers. As we expected, his three point shooting regressed down to 29.8%, a percentage in line with his numbers in 2014-15 and 2015-16.

However, what you would not expect is that he got cold from the free throw line, dropping down to 73.7% for the season. That's an extreme downturn for a usually good shooter. In the previous seven seasons, he'd shot a combined 82.8% from the line. Players simply don't fall off that suddenly and that extremely; that screams "fluke." And given how often Westbrook gets to the free throw line (7 times a game) that's an impactful fluke.

All in all, it's fair to suggest that the Thunder may have actually under-achieved this past season with their 48 wins.

The Chemistry Factor

The Oklahoma City Thunder added some stars this prior season in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. That, along with those "flukey" factors in 2016-17, inflated expectations beyond reason this year.

Moreover, those additions took some getting used to. George came via trade in July 6th, which is about the norm for any new acquisition. However, Carmelo Anthony got traded to the team on September 25th, less than a month prior to the start of the regular season.

Certainly, adding in two star players in a short manner of time is a difficult endeavor from a chemistry and rhythm standpoint. Moreover, the team lost a player in Enes Kanter that Westbrook had developed a nice familiarity with. Given all that, it's no surprise that the team got off to a rocky 8-12 start to the season.

Obviously, Carmelo Anthony never found his rhythm all season long, nor could the Thunder find the right role for him on the team. However, Paul George and Russell Westbrook did manage to find the right chemistry on and off the court, which should only improve over time and carry over through this season.

In a way, the two are ideal matches for each other. Paul George can serve as a spacer for the hard-charging Westbrook, and take over as a primary scorer when he needs a breather. Defensively, he can guard either wing position. In a sense, he's a poor man's Kevin Durant, but in a way that helps the George-Westbrook duo. With them, there's no fight to be the alpha dog on the team. George may arguably be the better overall player, but it's Westbrook's show; he's the engine that drives this bus, and George can fill in the gaps where needed.

That extra season should only give them more time to work on their playing chemistry, and give coach Billy Donovan more time to establish their best use. The idea that Donovan is some scrub coach is ridiculous. He had incredible success in college (two titles, four Final Four trips, seven Elite Eight appearances, all without superstar recruits), and has since won 61.0% of his games in the NBA. As he becomes more experienced in the professional ranks, he should continue to improve as well.

The Injury Factor

After that rocky 8-12 start, OKC started to find some rhythm last season and started to turn the corner. That momentum derailed some when they lost wing Andre Roberson to injury.

Although Roberson may be an awful shooter, he's the rare wing/guard who can make up for that with his defensive prowess. In fact, that defensive prowess is downright remarkable. Roberson charted as a 4.34 impact on defense according to ESPN real plus/minus, the highest among all wings in the league. Roberson and Robert Covington ( 4.24) were the only two who even got above 3.2 on that metric. He's not arguably the best wing defender in the league; he is the best wing defender in the league.

When we talk about great defensive teams, we tend to focus on great rim-protectors. However, there's a huge value in having size and speed at the wing to disrupt passing lanes. In the past, great defenses like the Chicago Bulls (with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen) built their scheme around their wings, and OKC can do the same. Between the 6'7" Roberson and the 6'9" Paul George, their perimeter defense is absolutely terrifying.

Along with a healthy Andre Roberson, the Thunder should also get a healthier Patrick Patterson. After being an advanced stats darling in Toronto, Patterson never made an impact in OKC due to injuries. In some ways, he's become a forgotten man. Still, if he can get back on track, he'd be a great fit for this team. He's a solid stretch four (37.0% career from three) who plays good team defense to boot. Patterson is only 29 years old right now, so it's not like he's some over the hill vet either. If he can get back close to 100%, he should pair with Jerami Grant to give the team a quality rotation at the 4 spot.

Additions and Subtractions

As mentioned, Carmelo Anthony never found his rhythm in Oklahoma City all season long. His efficiency and shooting plummeted, going from 43.3% from the field down to 40.4%, and from 53.5% to 50.3% in regards to his true shooting percentage. Given his age (34), it's difficult to tell whether that's a "fluke" that may regress back up, or a legitimate decline that suggests he's hit a wall in his career. Either way, it's safe to say he didn't play well for OKC last year. His cold shooting, coupled with poor defense, made him an ineffective player. Losing him (either by trade or the stretch provision) should help the team. Addition by subtraction.

In terms of "addition by addition," the team can point to bargain buy center Nerlens Noel. Noel had been a featured item in my 99 cent store for a reason. His defensive potential is staggering. He has fleet feet, and exceptionally quick hands. And the stats back that up. In fact, he's only one of four players in NBA history (!) to average both 1.4 blocks and 1.6 steals; more impressively, he's doing that in only 26.0 minutes per night. Obviously, Noel is a head case who's only a strike or two away from playing China. That said, he's also a good break or two away from being an elite defensive center. To land him on a marginal contract represents a massive coup for GM Sam Presti.

If there's any concern with Noel on OKC, it would be the "fit" on a team that already has a good true center in Steven Adams. Donovan had some success with a super-sized lineup in the past, but he can't fall into that same strategy again. Noel Adams (along with Roberson and Westbrook) would be a spacing nightmare.

However, if the team simply uses Noel as a 20-minute per game backup, he can be hugely effective. He's a highly disruptive defender that, coupled with Roberson and Paul George on the wings, may give OKC one of the better defensive units in basketball.

the bottom line

When I suggest that OKC may be a sleeper "threat" in the West, I'm not talking about a threat to Golden State. No one is, really. But I feel that OKC may be getting slept on as a threat to win a R1 or R2 series given all the flashy moves elsewhere. At the moment, I'd give them a very good chance of winning 50 games and emerging as the 3 or 4 seed again. Golden State may be out of reach, but Houston is showing some vulnerabilities right now as they lose depth. If they stumble, OKC may be laying in wait, eager to prove that this core is good enough to make waves after all.

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