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It seems like a given to some that Trump will get into office and hit that "economy good" button that Joe Biden refuses to press. But it's interesting that I barely see anyone talking about what he is actually proposing as part of his economic agenda:
Former President Donald Trump, who labeled himself “Tariff Man” in 2018, has made clear he wants to pursue a more aggressive trade strategy if he’s elected in November. Trump has floated a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports, a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 100% tariff on foreign cars – including from Mexico.
Now as someone who is admittedly biased towards capitalism and free trade, lets see what the experts have to say:
“The policy is very bad. Tariffs make consumers poorer. They shrink the economy,” Alex Durante, an economist at the Tax Foundation, a right-leaning think tank, told CNN in a phone interview. “This would probably be the most damaging part of a Trump 2.0 economic agenda.”
Still, even if Trump used the tariff revenue to fund tax cuts, his proposals for a 10% tariffs on imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods would cost the US economy 675,000 jobs, wipe out 0.6 percentage points from US gross domestic product (the broadest measure of the economy) and boost the unemployment rate by 0.4 percentage points, according to Moody’s projections shared first with CNN.
“If Trump increases tariffs as he has proposed, the economy would likely suffer a recession soon thereafter,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, adding that this includes the impact of very likely retaliation from other nations.
Inflation, a sore spot for families and the economy at large, would increase by 0.7 percentage points in the year after the tariffs are implemented, according to Zandi’s forecasts.
Goldman Sachs told clients in a recent report that higher tariffs would likely slow GDP growth and boost consumer prices.
So it seems that by and large, this will have a detrimental effect on the economy just like it did in 2018. In fact, the negative economic forecast created by his first round of tariffs is what prompted the fed to lower interest rates at a time when the economy should have had them raised, and left them with nowhere to go when covid hit. It was bad for the economy then, but the economy was doing well enough it didn't really matter as much. That certainly isn't the case today
Now I bet your wondering if congress will allow this to happen. Well, theres not a lot they can really do to stop him. The president has broad authority to enact these typed of tax increases.
Make no mistake. These tariffs are ill thought out and will also result in retaliatory tariffs that will further drive up the price of consumer goods and inflation. All to pay for the tax cuts he promised his millionaire buddies at a fundraiser over the weekend.
And who pays for the tariffs? Well if his 2018 tariffs or anything to go by: the American consumer.
“The 2018-2019 tariffs clearly raised consumer prices,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in their recent report, adding that these price increases were “borne almost entirely by US businesses and households” – not Chinese exporters.
Do you think that harsh tariffs during a time that the economy is still struggling to get its footing is wise? Do Republican claims that Trump is good for the economy hold merit here? Should we consider if needlessly antagonizing other countries (including allies) is worth it? What are the potential advantages?
It is the case. We applied tariffs to China, they returned the favor.
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Once we applied tariffs, retaliatory tariffs were applied.
Undoing them is not simple.
Imagine a "Mexican standoff"... once the guns are up, it's hard to get them all down.