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With the VC results being announced in a couple of weeks, I figured it was time we could make predictions on who the Cooperstown class of 2022 will be, so here's mine. I'll start with each committee and then go through each person on the BBWAA ballot.
EARLY BASEBALL ERA COMMITTEE: There's a lot of historic players worthy of consideration (including a giant host of Negro League players), and with this being the committee's first ever meeting it could go any which way. We've got the first African-American minor league player, the Josh Gibson of pitchers, and #4 on the longest hitting streak ranking all in the running. With this first time, though, I have a gut feeling they're going to pick someone who was actually alive at the same time as them, so my money's on either Allie Reynolds or Buck O'Neil getting voted in.
GOLDEN DAYS ERA COMMITTEE: For this one, I'm mainly going off of previously results. My heart says Roger Maris deserves to be in, and there seems to be a pretty strong following for Minnie Minoso and Dick Allen online. But with how well he did the last time (being a single vote shy of enshrinement), I'm predicting Tony Oliva will be the one to get in, with Jim Kaat a close second (it also helps that they're, you know, alive)
CURT SCHILLING: I'm going to say this right now: Schilling deserves to be in. If Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are basically locks at this point, Schilling should be that and then some. And to be clear, I HATE his politics. But that shouldn't be the reason why someone doesn't get elected into the Hall. The only real barrier should be if you're a genuine criminal (more on that later). As for whether or not he'll get in, that will depend on how the BBWAA reacts to him famously "cancelling" them and asking to be taken off the ballot. Maybe they'll be offended enough to grant his request via voting, or maybe they'll vote him in to spite him. Who even knows, given how fickle the BBWAA is, but with Schilling just under the mark as is it could go either way.
BARRY BONDS AND ROGER CLEMENS: Ooo boy. Yeah, I don't think they're getting in. Not only has MLB refused to pass an olive branch to anyone confirmed to have PEDs, but Bonds and Clemens both refuse to restore their reputation whatsoever (which might actually help two other players, but they're coming later). If they get into the Hall, it will be decades from now when steroids are in the rearview mirror and both players are either pushing daisies or on the cusp of doing so. It really stinks as someone who adored Clemens as a kid, but it's also their own fault.
SCOTT ROLEN: Rolen's been on a massive upward trajectory in the ballots, and it pretty much guarantees he'll get in. If it doesn't happen this year, it'll be next year for sure.
OMAR VIZQUEL: Remember when I said genuine criminals shouldn't be in the Hall? This is who I was referring to. And apparently the BBWAA agrees with me given his decline in the most recent ballot. Sure there's still five more years for new info on the domestic abuse to come out, and when looking at raw stats he should be in the Hall, but right now, he should not get in based on what we have. It shouldn't happen to him, it shouldn't happen to freaking Trevor Bauer, it shouldn't happen to anybody who does something like that.
BILLY WAGNER: The BBWAA seems to not know what to do with non-versatile players who weren't constantly in the game, and that includes relief pitchers. Wagner has had a similar rise to Rolen recently, but with two extra retired years on him and slightly less votes, he's in worse shape. If Wagner does get in, it'll be two or three years from now.
TODD HELTON: Helton will get in, but he's in a similar boat as Rolen and Wagner and won't be there for a while. Not that it's so bad in his case since he has a year on Rolen.
GARY SHEFFIELD: While not as marred by steroids as Bonds and Clemens, he also hasn't posted nearly the number of votes for him to be considered a likely candidate. He's going to fall off in the next few years.
ANDRUW JONES: If it was just his Braves career, he would have been an early pick. But the BBWAA does have to factor in the Dodgers onwards, and those numbers did not help him out at all.
JEFF KENT AND MANNY RAMIREZ: They're way too far down. Kent's practically guaranteed to fall off next year, and Manny Ramirez is in the Bonds and Clemens camp, but with stats that are "too low" (compared to Bonds) for any chance of success.
SAMMY SOSA: Goodbye.
ANDY PETTITTE: Also in the Bonds and Clemens camp, along with stats non-comparable to Clemens.
THE RELATIVE NEWCOMERS: I don't see most of them sticking around as indicated by the votes. While Tim Hudson and Bobby Abreu have my vote for eventual VC candidacy, Mark Buehrle wasn't that much of a standout to begin with, and Torii Hunter's relatively lacking stats - not to mention his Latinophobic and homophobic comments - will keep him out as well.
CARL CRAWFORD: He doesn't really have the stats that would warrant a spot in the Hall.
PRINCE FIELDER AND RYAN HOWARD: The BBWAA is obsessed with longevity, and it's a luxury these two didn't have. They'll stick around for a few years and then fall to the wayside, as iconic as they are.
TIM LINCECUM: With how much he contributed to the Giants and his two Cy Young awards, you'd think his WAR would be way higher than it actually is. He'll stick around a bit but will fall off soon afterwards.
JUSTIN MORNEAU: A very popular figure that also did not have the benefit of longevity.
JOE NATHAN: Stats are very low despite a solid career, and that isn't attributable to his Tommy John surgery.
DAVID ORTIZ: Ortiz is the first of the two aforementioned players who will benefit from NOT being in the Bonds and Clemens club. Despite the proof of steroids being there for all to see, and the fact that the BBWAA is supposedly allergic to designated hitters, Ortiz is such a prominent and beloved figure in baseball that he will clear all the hurdles and be elected. If not this year, then in the years after that.
JONATHAN PAPELBON: A relief pitcher with none of Wagner's stats. Will fall off.
JAKE PEAVY: Peavy has much better stats than most of the other pitchers here, and it will allow him to stick around longer. Longevity's going to be a thorn in his side as well, though in his case it won't matter quite as much.
A.J. PIERZYNSKI: His reputation as an asshole, coupled with "not quite there" stats, will keep him out of the Hall.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ: Ooo boy again. A-Rod's the other player I think will benefit from not being in the Bonds and Clemens camp - even if he has a foot in. His rather public punishment compared to the other two seems like a death sentence on paper, but A-Rod's post-career has made him a surprisingly popular figure who isn't anywhere near as defensive as Bonds and Clemens. If A-Rod continues playing his cards right, he might actually get in. Bear in mind though, it's NOT happening this year. If it happens, it'll be in his eighth or ninth year on the ballot, given how extensive and publicized his situation has been, especially compared to someone like Ortiz.
JIMMY ROLLINS AND MARK TEIXEIRA: I think most would agree that these two are great players who could and should be in the Hall. It's just not happening this year; probably around Year 5 and 6 for them.
PREDICTED CLASS: Curt Schilling, Scott Rolen, Buck O'Neil, and Tony Oliva
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