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So, this is something I've always wondered if there are stats about, but I am not sure how exactly to search for this online. Figure I'll ask it here and see if the fine folks of Reddit can answer.
When a batter has a plate appearance in a tight spot late in a game, with runners in scoring position, I tend to be pessimistic when the batter already has two or more hits in the game. It seems just by the law of averages that he's less likely to get a hit, since collecting three or more hits in a game is not a normal thing for most players.
For example, game is tied in the ninth inning. I'll use the Brewers since I'm a fan. There's a guy on 2nd base and two outs. Jonathan Lucroy comes up to bat, having gone 0-4 the rest of that day. Following him is Carlos Gomez, who has gone 3-4.
Lucroy and Gomez are both good for around a .300 average or so, and are talented hitters. So in theory, it seems very unlikely that Lucroy would have an 0-5 night, and equally unlikely that Gomez would hit 4-5.
Would there be any merit for the opposing manager in this situation to walk Lucroy to pitch to Gomez based solely on this (not taking matchups and such in to account)? Are there any statistics for situations like this? Just something I've wondered for a long time and haven't been able to ask. Thank you in advance :)
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- 10 years ago
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