Say two people are trying to guess what color a teddy bear will be inside a present. Person 1 thinks the bear only comes in red. Person 2 likes this brand of toys and knows it comes in red or blue. Seemingly, both people should have a 50% chance of guessing correctly.

However, if the bear is actually red, person 1 could only have chosen correctly, 100% chance. If it was actually blue, they could only have chosen incorrectly, 0% chance. Person 2 really did have a chance to guess correctly in both scenarios, 50% chance.

Something about this makes me think person 2 has a better chance overall. Especially if there were even more colors person 1 did not know about which 2 did. If the bear was any color other than red, person 1 had no hope of guessing right while person 2 still had a small chance. What do you think?