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I was looking at this post from last month by /u/bradgoodspeed on the scoring projections of each player, and I figured that since we are approaching the final stretch of games this season I would update the table. In addition, this post is 23 games after Brad’s, and there are 23 games left in the season so I think it could be cool to track their progress. I’m also adding a milestone tracker column for veterans who might achieve personal bests in goals, assists and/or points, and for those who have already smashed some (cough Kadri). First, here is /u/bradgoodspeed ‘s table from last month after 36 games.
NAME | GP | P | PPG | ON PACE |
---|---|---|---|---|
Auston Matthews | 36 | 32 | 0.89 | 73 |
Mitch Marner | 36 | 27 | 0.75 | 62 |
James Van Riemsdyk | 36 | 26 | 0.72 | 59 |
William Nylander | 35 | 25 | 0.71 | 58 |
Tyler Bozak | 33 | 20 | 0.61 | 48 |
Nazem Kadri | 36 | 21 | 0.58 | 48 |
Jake Gardiner | 36 | 20 | 0.56 | 46 |
Morgan Rielly | 36 | 17 | 0.47 | 39 |
Connor Brown | 36 | 16 | 0.44 | 36 |
Zach Hyman | 36 | 16 | 0.44 | 36 |
Nikita Zaitsev | 36 | 15 | 0.42 | 34 |
Leo Komarov | 36 | 13 | 0.36 | 30 |
Martin Marincin | 16 | 5 | 0.31 | 19 |
Matt Hunwick | 28 | 8 | 0.29 | 21 |
Frederik Gauthier | 6 | 2 | 0.33 | 17 |
Nikita Soshnikov | 27 | 4 | 0.15 | 11 |
Roman Polak | 31 | 4 | 0.13 | 10 |
Ben Smith | 24 | 3 | 0.13 | 9 |
Connor Carrick | 32 | 4 | 0.13 | 10 |
Matt Martin | 36 | 4 | 0.11 | 9 |
Josh Leivo | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Frank Corrado | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 |
Notes for my table below: The projections are not calculated for an 82-game sample. These are the totals that each player will have at the end of the season if they produce at the exact pace they are at now, considering missed games. For example, Bozak has played in 56 of the team’s 59 games, so his pace is based on a 79-game season. Totals are rounded to the nearest whole number. And here are the current totals. I have switched players around as needed so that it’s in descending order of expected points at the end of this season. This table also assumes that each player will play in all of the team’s remaining games, which is obviously not the case for some.
NAME | GP | P | PPG | ON PACE | MILESTONE TRACKER (VETERANS ONLY) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Auston Matthews | 59 | 52 | 0.88 | 72 | Rookie |
Mitch Marner | 56 | 48 | 0.86 | 68 | Rookie |
Nazem Kadri | 59 | 47 | 0.80 | 65 | Career high in goals (25), 8 assists to tie at 30, 3 points to tie at 50 |
James Van Riemsdyk | 59 | 46 | 0.78 | 64 | 11 goals to tie at 30, 4 assists to tie at 31, 15 points to tie at 61 |
William Nylander | 58 | 42 | 0.72 | 58 | Rookie |
Tyler Bozak | 56 | 38 | 0.68 | 54 | 9 goals to tie at 23, 6 assists to tie at 30, 11 points to tie at 49 |
Jake Gardiner | 59 | 30 | 0.51 | 42 | 1 goal to tie at 10, 3 assists to tie at 24, 1 point to tie at 31 |
Nikita Zaitsev | 59 | 27 | 0.46 | 38 | Rookie |
Connor Brown | 59 | 26 | 0.44 | 36 | Rookie |
Leo Komarov | 59 | 23 | 0.39 | 32 | 9 goals to tie at 19, 5 assists to tie at 18, 13 points to tie at 36 |
Zach Hyman | 59 | 23 | 0.39 | 32 | Rookie |
Morgan Rielly | 53 | 22 | 0.42 | 32 | 6 goals to tie at 9, 8 assists to tie at 27, 14 points to tie at 36 |
Josh Leivo | 9 | 8 | 0.89 | 28 | Rookie |
Matt Hunwick | 49 | 13 | 0.27 | 19 | No remotely-realistic milestones |
Nikita Soshnikov | 45 | 7 | 0.16 | 11 | Rookie |
Connor Carrick | 55 | 7 | 0.13 | 10 | Tied career high in goals (2), assists (5) and new high in points (7) |
Matt Martin | 59 | 7 | 0.12 | 10 | 6 assists to tie at 9 |
Roman Polak | 54 | 6 | 0.11 | 9 | 2 goals to tie at 5 |
Frederik Gauthier | 19 | 3 | 0.16 | 7 | Rookie |
Ben Smith | 34 | 4 | 0.12 | 7 | No remotely-realistic milestones |
Some things I noticed while making this:
-Kadri had a huge increase in production over the last 23 games. By far the most of any player.
-Are the rookies consistent? Matthews, Nylander and Brown have scored at a practically identical pace to what they had been all season.
-Marner on the other hand has picked up his pace, with his increase mirroring those of linemates Bozak and JvR. That line has really picked it up in this cohort of games. Hopefully he is back in action soon.
-Zaitzev is the only D-man to have increased his rate of production over the last 23 games. At least some of the forwards have picked up the slack.
It will be interesting to see which players meet their expected totals in the coming games.
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