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Leafs players' scoring projections
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I was looking at this post from last month by /u/bradgoodspeed on the scoring projections of each player, and I figured that since we are approaching the final stretch of games this season I would update the table. In addition, this post is 23 games after Brad’s, and there are 23 games left in the season so I think it could be cool to track their progress. I’m also adding a milestone tracker column for veterans who might achieve personal bests in goals, assists and/or points, and for those who have already smashed some (cough Kadri). First, here is /u/bradgoodspeed ‘s table from last month after 36 games.



NAME GP P PPG ON PACE
Auston Matthews 36 32 0.89 73
Mitch Marner 36 27 0.75 62
James Van Riemsdyk 36 26 0.72 59
William Nylander 35 25 0.71 58
Tyler Bozak 33 20 0.61 48
Nazem Kadri 36 21 0.58 48
Jake Gardiner 36 20 0.56 46
Morgan Rielly 36 17 0.47 39
Connor Brown 36 16 0.44 36
Zach Hyman 36 16 0.44 36
Nikita Zaitsev 36 15 0.42 34
Leo Komarov 36 13 0.36 30
Martin Marincin 16 5 0.31 19
Matt Hunwick 28 8 0.29 21
Frederik Gauthier 6 2 0.33 17
Nikita Soshnikov 27 4 0.15 11
Roman Polak 31 4 0.13 10
Ben Smith 24 3 0.13 9
Connor Carrick 32 4 0.13 10
Matt Martin 36 4 0.11 9
Josh Leivo 1 0 0.00 0
Frank Corrado 1 0 0.00 0


Notes for my table below: The projections are not calculated for an 82-game sample. These are the totals that each player will have at the end of the season if they produce at the exact pace they are at now, considering missed games. For example, Bozak has played in 56 of the team’s 59 games, so his pace is based on a 79-game season. Totals are rounded to the nearest whole number. And here are the current totals. I have switched players around as needed so that it’s in descending order of expected points at the end of this season. This table also assumes that each player will play in all of the team’s remaining games, which is obviously not the case for some.

NAME GP P PPG ON PACE MILESTONE TRACKER (VETERANS ONLY)
Auston Matthews 59 52 0.88 72 Rookie
Mitch Marner 56 48 0.86 68 Rookie
Nazem Kadri 59 47 0.80 65 Career high in goals (25), 8 assists to tie at 30, 3 points to tie at 50
James Van Riemsdyk 59 46 0.78 64 11 goals to tie at 30, 4 assists to tie at 31, 15 points to tie at 61
William Nylander 58 42 0.72 58 Rookie
Tyler Bozak 56 38 0.68 54 9 goals to tie at 23, 6 assists to tie at 30, 11 points to tie at 49
Jake Gardiner 59 30 0.51 42 1 goal to tie at 10, 3 assists to tie at 24, 1 point to tie at 31
Nikita Zaitsev 59 27 0.46 38 Rookie
Connor Brown 59 26 0.44 36 Rookie
Leo Komarov 59 23 0.39 32 9 goals to tie at 19, 5 assists to tie at 18, 13 points to tie at 36
Zach Hyman 59 23 0.39 32 Rookie
Morgan Rielly 53 22 0.42 32 6 goals to tie at 9, 8 assists to tie at 27, 14 points to tie at 36
Josh Leivo 9 8 0.89 28 Rookie
Matt Hunwick 49 13 0.27 19 No remotely-realistic milestones
Nikita Soshnikov 45 7 0.16 11 Rookie
Connor Carrick 55 7 0.13 10 Tied career high in goals (2), assists (5) and new high in points (7)
Matt Martin 59 7 0.12 10 6 assists to tie at 9
Roman Polak 54 6 0.11 9 2 goals to tie at 5
Frederik Gauthier 19 3 0.16 7 Rookie
Ben Smith 34 4 0.12 7 No remotely-realistic milestones


Some things I noticed while making this:

-Kadri had a huge increase in production over the last 23 games. By far the most of any player.

-Are the rookies consistent? Matthews, Nylander and Brown have scored at a practically identical pace to what they had been all season.

-Marner on the other hand has picked up his pace, with his increase mirroring those of linemates Bozak and JvR. That line has really picked it up in this cohort of games. Hopefully he is back in action soon.

-Zaitzev is the only D-man to have increased his rate of production over the last 23 games. At least some of the forwards have picked up the slack.

It will be interesting to see which players meet their expected totals in the coming games.

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