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With McLaren having now confirmed their two drivers for 2019, options are narrowing for other unconfirmed drivers.
There are still a lot of seats in flux, which I've carefully reviewed below. As of today, these 11 seats all remain technically open:
Two at Toro Rosso
Two at Haas
Two at Sauber
Two at Williams
Two at Force India
One at Ferrari
However, there are some strong assumptions that can be made. Namely:
1) The two FI seats are reportedly decided, and neither is going to Ocon. Stroll is all but confirmed there. The other seat is still a mystery, but Ocon says that driver brings money.
2) We can expect Haas to retain Magnussen, since he has been their clear lead driver this year, beating Grosjean 8-4 in races excluding mechanical DNFs and 49-27 in points (it would be 9-5 in races and 61-45 in points if accounting for misfortune in Australia and Italy). Magnussen himself confirms this is likely.
Leclerc is guaranteed a seat somewhere on the 2019 grid: Sauber, Ferrari, and a rumored possibility of a switch to Haas.
That leaves 8 open seats on net, which are most likely contested between the following drivers:
CURRENT DRIVERS
| Raikkonen | Stays at Ferrari or the seat goes to Leclerc and he almost certainly retires. |
| Perez | He may retain the FI seat (he brings money to the team, so this is consistent with Ocon's remarks), otherwise clearly attractive to Haas, Williams, or Sauber as a decently quick driver with financial backing. |
| Ocon | Currently on the radar for Haas. Also realistically on the shortlists for Williams and Sauber. If Mercedes have to release him, Toro Rosso might be interested too. |
| Vandoorne | Sauber was considered a plausible option, given the ART connection to Vasseur, but Vasseur himself has recently denied it. There aren't many other credible possibilities left. |
| Grosjean | Haas might retain him given recent improved performances and recent comments from the team, but no guarantee here. |
| Ericsson | Could hang on at Sauber due to his connections there. Reportedly unlikely to get an offer elsewhere. We perhaps shouldn't rule out Williams if he brings cash with him (although unlikely given his investors are embedded at Sauber). |
| Sirotkin | Not yet confirmed for Williams, but likely to stay if he isn't outbid, since his initial signing was "multi-year". |
| Hartley | Could potentially retain a Toro Rosso seat, despite the heavy beating by Gasly, simply due to lack of ready candidates in the Red Bull junior pipeline and reticence of ex-drivers (e.g., Vergne and Buemi) to return. |
EX DRIVERS
| Kvyat | Apparently strongly on the radar for Toro Rosso again, since Vergne seems disinterested in a midfield drive and there are few obvious alternatives unless Red Bull are willing to take someone from outside their program. |
| Kubica | Still hunting for a seat. Could realistically slot in at Williams or perhaps Sauber. Probably nowhere else. |
| Giovinazzi | Ferrari program driver, he could potentially be in line for a drive at Sauber in the specific event that Leclerc goes to Ferrari. Otherwise, no seat is likely, so probably at most one out of him and Raikkonen will be on the 2019 grid. |
NEW DRIVERS
| Russell | Mercedes junior and leader of F2 championship, who is currently trying to secure a 2019 seat. He could therefore reasonably have a shot at any Mercedes customer team (Williams or FI). Other options (e.g., Toro Rosso) seem more tenuous. |
| Markelov | Rumored to be a potential replacement for Stroll at Williams. |
| Mazepin | Another potential driver for Williams, but he's still reportedly in the picture at FI, given connections there (development driver). He would likely be an easier teammate for Stroll than Perez. |
| Albon | Another past Red Bull junior, who they might need to consider backtracking on, given his recent strong performances (3rd in F2). He is targeting a Toro Rosso drive. |
| Ticktum | Red Bull junior and he currently leads the Euro F3 championship. But even winning that won't get him the necessary 40 superlicense points. There's a very small outside chance that an exception could occur (e.g., points could be awarded for his Macau win if the superlicense rules are changed), but he's more likely going to Super Formula in 2019. |
Overall, that's 16 plausible candidates into 8 seats, so it obviously won't go. It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
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