I decided to take a look at speed trap data from the first three rounds to get some insight into the differences in team performance and understand which teams are struggling where.

For this analysis, I used the speed trap data from qualifying, when all teams should be turned up to the max and are using DRS equally (not true in race or practice data). Each track has four points at which speeds are assessed:

• Max value (collected at the end of a long straight).

• Start/finish line.

• Intermediate 1 (between sector 1 and 2).

• Intermediate 2 (between sector 2 and 3).

Each driver therefore has 12 data points and each team has 24 data points.

One datapoint is not going to tell us anything. Just looking at max speed for instance will not distinguish a more powerful car from a lower drag car. Similarly, we cannot tell at intermediate speeds whether a car accelerates more quickly due to more power / less drag, or whether they came out of the previous corner exit at higher speed due to better downforce or better stability.

To deal with this, I categorized speed traps based on the previous corner exit. I used three subjective categories:

• Simple exit: This is a corner that ends quickly, so most acceleration is in a straight line.

• Some direction change: These are cases where the driver remained flat on the throttle but had an additional corner to navigate under acceleration, meaning not all the grip was available for acceleration.

• Significant direction change: A more severe version of the previous case. This includes corners with very long exits or corner complexes where acceleration continues from the first apex.

Of course, note that we are combining datapoints across three tracks, meaning different set-ups, so there will remain considerable within-team variability even after adjusting for other factors. Consider this analysis a very coarse grade version of the GPS-based analyses the teams are able to do.

Mercedes and Ferrari

GRAPH

cyan = Mercedes; red = Ferrari

The data are plotted in different panels for each corner exit type. On the x-axis is the avg trap speed (median across all drivers). On the y-axis is the advantage over the avg trap speed, with each dot representing one driver in one speed trap at one track.

These two teams are clearly the leaders in all speed traps. All speeds are above average. Interestingly, Ferrari look slightly ahead if anything, and Mercedes aren't really gaining ground as speeds increase. The Ferrari is looking genuinely strong at this point. The only places where Mercedes look ahead are at lower speeds after exits involving some degree direction change, and even there the differences are small.

Red Bull, Renault, and McLaren

GRAPH

blue = RBR; yellow = Renault; orange = McLaren

The three Renault-engined teams are all relatively uncompetitive through the speed traps, suggesting the Renault powerunit is still significantly down on power relative to Mercedes and Ferrari, perhaps due to ongoing reliability concerns limiting their top-end potential especially in qualifying.

Red Bull are below average on straights in pretty much all conditions, and usually a tad slower than Renault. Given Red Bull are clearly quite competitive overall, they must be making up a lot of time on the pack on corner entry or mid-corner.

McLaren are clearly hurting the more speeds go up, suggesting it's currently one of the highest drag cars. Don't be fooled by the two orange datapoints on the far right of the last panel -- they were achieved with a tow. Concerning for McLaren is the fact that they also below average at lower speeds following some degree of direction change in the acceleration zone. This suggests they are not achieving higher corner exit speeds than others, despite seemingly going for a high-drag high-downforce concept.

Haas, Toro Rosso, and Force India

GRAPH

gray = Haas, purple = Toro Rosso, pink = Force India

Haas look fantastic at lower speeds. They are the clear third quickest team, behind only Ferrari and Mercedes, out of acceleration zones that involve significant change of direction. They fall back down the order with increasing speeds, suggesting they are generating similar downforce to Ferrari but at lower aerodynamic efficiency (i.e., more drag).

Force India seem to me to have the most consistent gains as speeds rise. They have a strong powerunit, low drag, and seemingly are just lacking downforce relative to others.

Toro Rosso are hard to read. I excluded their datapoints from Australia, since the car was massively changed in Bahrain. Overall, they look similar to Red Bull through the speed traps.

Sauber and Williams

GRAPH

red = Sauber; black = Williams

Sauber look quite respectable on corner exit. They are slighlty faster even than RBR on straights that follow significant direction change under acceleration! It seems to me like they are generating a good amount of downforce, but are too draggy down the straights. A similar issue to Haas, but more extreme.

Williams are mid-pack at lower speeds after most corner types, suggesting decent exit speeds. But they get obliterated as speeds go up -- the only team losing out as badly down the straight is McLaren, and they have a Renault powerunit. Contrast Williams with Force India, who are running the same customer Mercedes: Force India gain about 5km/h relative to average from low to high speeds, whereas Williams lose about 5km/h, putting them at a 10km/h deficit by the end of the straight. The Williams is clearly an extremely draggy car at the moment.