Hey Reddit!

It's Day 31 of this offseason series where we discuss a different player's fantasy value each day as a group. We are 76 days away from the NFL season opener now!

Each day we'll drop a name, include some thoughts on that player, and you can respond with your thoughts in the comments.

Today's Discussion: Jonathan Taylor (RB, Indianapolis Colts)

The Positives With Jonathan Taylor

• Rushing Talent: Jonathan Taylor got the most carries in the league last year with 332, and for good reason. During the 2021 NFL season, Jonathan Taylor was best in the league in a variety of categories, finishing first in rushing yards (1811), first in total touchdowns (20), first in evaded tackles (165), first in evaded tackles per touch (44.4%), first in runs of 15 rushing yards (23), and first in yards created (1382) according to PlayerProfiler. In addition he finished top 10 in yards per touch (5.8 - 3rd best in the league), breakaway run rate (6.9% - 9th best in the league), and yards created per touch (5.8 - 3rd best in the league) according to PlayerProfiler. Clearly he’s a special running talent and that makes it easier to trust him in your fantasy league(s) in 2022.

• Frank Reich’s RB Usage: Over the course of his career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, Frank Reich has done a pretty good job of utilizing (both on the ground & through the air) and getting production out of his backfield. With a more running back-friendly coach calling the plays for him, we can feel pretty confident that Jonathan Taylor will see a healthy workload again in 2022.

• Fantasy Consistency: During the 2021 season, in 0.5 PPR formats Jonathan Taylor had 0/17 games with 0-5 fantasy points, 2/17 games with 5-10 fantasy points, 3/17 games with 10-15 fantasy points, 5/17 games with 15-20 fantasy points, 3/17 games with 20-25 fantasy points, 1/17 games with 25-30 fantasy points, 2/17 games with 30-35 fantasy points, and 1/17 games with 50 fantasy points according to Fantasy Data. He scored at least 10 fantasy points in 15 of his 17 games (88%), and getting a player with that kind of week-to-week consistency (as well as the potential to put up monster weeks as well) is very nice for your fantasy lineups since you can set-and-forget.

The Concerns with Jonathan Taylor

Doesn’t Necessarily Have The Highest Fantasy Ceiling For 2022 Out Of All The Running Backs?: While Jonathan Taylor did finish as the RB1 in 2021 and is slated to go off the board as the first overall pick in most 2022 fantasy drafts, it’s still hard to say if he really has the highest fantasy upside of all players going into the 2022 season. Derrick Henry has averaged more fantasy PPG in each of the past two years:

• 2021 Derrick Henry (21.9 PPG in standard, 23.0 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 24.2 PPG in PPR) Jonathan Taylor (19.6 PPG in standard, 20.8 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 21.9 PPG in PPR)

• 2020 Derrick Henry (19.6 PPG in standard, 20.2 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 20.8 PPG in PPR) Jonathan Taylor (14.5 PPG in standard, 15.7 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 16.9 PPG in PPR)

• Christian McCaffrey averaged 22.2 PPG in standard, 25.8 PPG in 0.5 PPR, and 29.5 PPG in PPR in the 2019 season. In addition, he averaged 30.1 fantasy PPG in PPR formats during the 2020 season.

• Austin Ekeler was a near equal in PPR (21.9 PPG for Taylor, 21.5 PPG for Ekeler) last year, and will be playing in a much better offense and gets more usage as a pass-catcher in 2022

• Dalvin Cook’s peak in 2020 (21.0 PPG in standard, 22.6 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 24.1 PPG in PPR) was higher than Jonathan Taylor’s peak in 2021 (19.6 PPG in standard, 20.8 PPG in 0.5 PPR, 21.9 PPG in PPR)

If you are just chasing absolute upside in 2022, clearly there are a few players that may have stronger cases than Taylor.

Possible Red Zone/Touchdown Regression?: Jonathan Taylor had 85 carries inside the 20 yard line (1st in the NFL…2nd place was Austin Ekeler with 46 carries), 41 carries inside the 10 yard line (1st in the NFL…2nd place was Damien Harris with 30 carries), and 26 carries inside the 5 yard line (1st in the NFL…2nd place was James Conner with 16) according to Pro Football Reference. How much of an outlier is this? Well…the 85 carries inside the 20 was the most in Pro Football Reference’s Database (goes back to 1994 - only 3 other players have cracked 80 : LT in 2004 with 83 carries, Curtis Martin in 1995 with 83 carries, and Emmitt Smith in 1995 with 81 carries)...The 41 carries inside the 10 was the most since LeGarrette Blount in 2016 (42)...and the 26 carries inside the 5 was the most since Arian Foster in 2012 (26). It would be incredibly difficult for Jonathan Taylor to see around the same red zone usage again during the 2022 season and it’s probably safe to expect some regression to the mean here (and likely fewer rushing touchdowns).

Does The Matt Ryan Acquisition Lead To The Colts Passing More?: The Indianapolis Colts got rid of Carson Wentz after he failed to lead to the team to the playoffs and sent him to Washington. To fill their starting quarterback spot, they made the move to acquire former Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan has thrown 20 passing touchdowns in every season of his career besides his rookie year and has averaged 269.1 passing yards per game over the course of his entire career according to Pro Football Reference. With a likely quarterback upgrade, there’s a very real chance that the Colts pass a little more and scale back Jonathan Taylor’s workload a bit.

Extra Thoughts/Info

• Offensive Line: The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranked 12th at the end of last year and are projected to be the 10th best offensive line in the 2022 season according to Pro Football Focus. They are projected to have 3 of the 5 same starters from last season: LG Quenton Nelson, C Ryan Kelly, and RT Braden Smith. The changes being made will be at LT as they go from Eric Fisher to Matt Pryor, and RG as they go from Mark Glowinski to Danny Pinter.

• Jonathan Taylor finished as the RB1 in standard (333.1 total fantasy points, 19.6 fantasy PPG), RB1 in 0.5 PPR (353.1 total fantasy points, 20.8 fantasy PPG), and RB1 in PPR (373.1 total fantasy points, 21.9 fantasy PPG) during the 2021 season according to Fantasy Pros.

• In 2020, Jonathan Taylor was the RB4 in standard (216.8 total fantasy points, 14.5 fantasy PPG), RB6 in 0.5 PPR (234.8 total fantasy points, 15.7 fantasy PPG), and RB6 in PPR (252.8 total fantasy points, 16.9 fantasy PPG) according to Fantasy Pros.

• Jonathan Taylor posted a 83.9 PFF grade in 2020 and a 87.0 PFF grade in 2021.

Personal Thoughts

Jonathan Taylor is going off the board as RB1 (1.5 overall) on ESPN and RB1 (1.1 overall) on Yahoo. Do I necessarily believe he’s going to finish as the #1 overall fantasy running back in 2022? No - there are quite a few players that have already flashed similar/higher ceilings than Taylor (and that doesn’t include the possibility of other players breaking out in 2022). Do I think that he’s the safest bet to finish at least as an RB1 during the 2022 season? Yes. With the first overall pick you are looking for the safest player that could potentially finish as the top player in fantasy - and Jonathan Taylor is the safest running back you can draft this year: he’s young, finished as the RB1 overall last year, has shown some dual-threat capabilities, plays behind an above-average offensive line, has a coach that has a solid track record utilizing running backs, and got a QB upgrade. My personal preference for this year (and most years in general) is to have a pick in the mid-to-late first round, but if I get dealt #1 overall I’m taking Jonathan Taylor.

Charitable Cause

For each entry going forward, there will be a link to a charitable cause/foundation. Today's link is for...

Jonathan Taylor’s My Cause My Cleats in 2020 was for No Kid Hungry

https://www.nokidhungry.org/

Links To Previous Discussions

In order to avoid any issues with the search function on this subreddit by including every link in the original post, going forward all of the links to previous discussions can be found in this Google Sheets

Drop your thoughts on Jonathan Taylor below and let's work together as a community to have a discussion of his fantasy potential for 2022!

Tomorrow's Discussion: Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)